Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance: putting an end to the myth of the Great Helmsman

Not gone for good yet? (Joseph Eid - AFP)
Last week Carlos Ghosn told us a story about Nissan, Renault and the Alliance that ended tragically in 2019. Indeed, for him, if his own trajectory broke in November 2018, then it could not be any different from that of the companies he was managing and the destiny of this fragile Alliance that he was leading.
 
There's nothing surprising about that since that's the way he's wanted history to be written for years: just as Jean-Luc Mélenchon [leader of the radical left in France] said "the Republic is me", Carlos Ghosn went repeating "the Alliance is me" and suggesting that if he was no longer there then everything would fall apart.
 
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2020: the year the EV must take off

Not queuing for take off

The weekly column by Bernard Jullien is also on www.autoactu.com.

In their report submitted in February 2019, Xavier Mosquet and Patrick Pelata considered that it was urgent, in order to "make France a leader in low-emission vehicles", to "create strong momentum to develop the electrified vehicle market": In the light of the emission curves for 2017 and 2018 and knowing the CAFE targets defined by the EU for 2020 and 2021, the roughly 30,000 battery EVs and 14,500 rechargeable hybrids registered in France in 2018 were not enough and it was essential, in their opinion, that from 2019 onwards, both firms and public authorities should be strongly mobilised.
 
At the end of 2019, in terms of registration figures, the effect is not very significant since, at the end of December, electric vehicles accounted for 42,800 (1.9% market share) and rechargeable hybrids for 18,600 (0.81%): manufacturers have waited until 2020 to launch their offers so that their EV registrations - which will double this year and then be affected in 2021 by a coefficient of 1.67 and in 2022 by 1.33 - will effectively take them out of the red zone in which de-dieselisation has put them.
 
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What if Bruno Le Maire was inspired by Donald Trump...

In the port of Tanger Med, low-cost Renault await...

The weekly column by Bernard Jullien is also on www.autoactu.com.

Last Friday Autoactu released two articles that unintentionally referred to each other.
 
One, signed by Laurent Bodin, dealt with the fate of PSA's Mulhouse assembly plant, which saw the production of the new 2008 model leave for Spain under the now well-known doctrine that French sites should not assemble vehicles from segments A and B, even if they are SUVs.
The other, signed by Bertrand Rakoto, analysed the automobile component of the new free trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico and the constraints it imposes on manufacturers to limit competition between high-wage and low-wage countries and relocation to Mexico.
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Gérard Detourbet: a Renault guy, out of the ordinary

The silent disruptor

Gérard Detourbet passed away last Thursday. In 2017, he had to hand over the final stages of the development of K-ZE, the electric version of his Kwid in China, to take care of himself and will not be there to watch his commercial launch. However, one can count on his colleagues trained at his school to ensure its success there and to make him travel to Europe. read more

The German car industry: the social compromise at risk?

France's team knocked out. And in the end, Germany wins?
While the French automotive industry is going, this Monday, to try to understand what awaits it and try to put pressure to receive all the support it needs, news from our German neighbours converge to indicate that the coming years will be difficult for both automakers and equipment manufacturers.
 
 After Audi announced early last week that it would reduce its workforce by 9,500 by 2025, Daimler announced on the weekend that it would cut 10,000 jobs by 2022. A few weeks ago, Continental also announced a plan to reduce its workforce by 20,000 (out of a total of 244,000 people), including 7,000 in Germany. "In total," says RFI, "in recent months, the main car manufacturers and equipment manufacturers have planned nearly 30,000 job cuts.
 
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VW's imperialist enterprise in the media sphere

Dieselgate : and the winner is...

This November, Volkswagen's offensive in the electrical vehicle resulted in an impressive series of announcements and statements by the group's top executives, who seem to want to convince everyone that the inevitable move towards battery-powered electric vehicles is underway and that Volkswagen is the most ready of all manufacturers to lead this change.
 
There is undoubtedly a "Coué method" dimension here that leads managers, afraid of the risks they take, to want to convince themselves, their teams and customers that the battery-powered EV is the right choice.
Above all, there is obviously a very political will to impose a global standard and to create competitive rules of the game for the automotive industry, which will be all the easier for Volkswagen to respect as they will have been largely designed around its convictions and proposals.
 
One of the signs of this political work was given when Angela Merkel, at the beginning of the month, honoured the invitation of the group's leaders to attend the launch of the ID3 assemby plant at the Zwickau plant in eastern Saxony.
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Thanks to ageing and deindustrialisation, the Ile de France is painted green

Bernard Jullien is not cheering (source AFP).
The first results in the latest EGT (Enquête Globale Transports = Global Transport Survey) conducted by Île-de-France Mobilités, formerly known as STIF (Syndicat des transports d'Île de France, the state run transportation authority recently devoluted to the region), are now available.
[Expectations were high since the reduction of the car footprint has become the official policy not only of the socialist mayor of Paris Hidalgo but also now to her moderately conservative rival governing the region].
 
They reveal that the region chaired by Valérie Pécresse is where it was expected to be: compared to 2010 (date of the last EGT), the growth in commuting - following that of the population - was expected to be around 7% by 2020 and, to reduce GHG emissions linked to transport by 20%, it was necessary, according to Airparif's calculation, for car and two-wheel motorised travel to fall by 2%.
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Toyota et Honda : different but strong

Looks like a no-deal
This November, we receive the financial results of Japanese automakers for the first half of their fiscal year, which ends at the end of March. Awaiting of Nissan, which will only be made public this week, we can look at those of Toyota and Honda, which already reveal the unequal exposure of Japanese carmakers to the decline in global demand that is now taking shape.
 
From this point of view, Toyota impresses by posting increasing volumes, sales and results.
Toyota sold 4.64 million vehicles from April to September, 220,000 more than last year. Its turnover increased by 600 billion yen (almost 5 billion euros), i.e. by 4%, and its operating income by 140 billion yen (1.16 billion euros, +11%). Its operating margin was 8.6% of turnover for the first half of the previous year, compared to 9.2% for the first six months of 2020.
 
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PSA-FCA: Sergio's ghost is hovering over the deal

Some in the industry need a haircut

As the exact terms of the deal being negotiated and the reactions of the markets become clearer, the scope of this 50-50 appears a bit different from "parity". Indeed, the financial community is calculating, on the basis of the respective valuations of the two groups before the announcement of the project and the operations that will be carried out before the deal, that we would rather be at 60-40 for the benefit of PSA, and that PSA therefore is agrees for the deal to be made at a significant sacrifice. read more

Behind the financial results: the challenge of the pay out policy to shareholders

Payout_policy_2006-15.jpg

As we are informed in late October of the financial results for the third quarter of 2019 of the automotive groups, a rather difficult year 2019 is looming for most manufacturers and everything suggests that things will not improve in 2020: a large majority of markets are on a downward trend and it is imperative to continue investing.
 
Investing for a carmaker means both feeding the "business as usual" by regularly renewing the products. It also means, of course, launching or developing in new fields by setting up in countries where it was not present, or not enough, by creating new brands or by developing R&D skills that were not its own until then.
In all these cases, there is a need to spend now and, in most cases, several years in a row, expecting future revenues that may or may not become a reality.
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