Amérique du Nord

Calabrese, Giuseppe G. (2012).  Making Fiat-Chrysler a viable carmaker. Gerpisa colloquium. ...

Thème: Trajectoires et stratégies des constructeurs

Thème: Manufacturer trajectories and strategies

Berggren, Christian (2012).  Creative accumulation in a mature industry - Understanding the current transformation of the automotive industry. Gerpisa colloquium Krakow May 30 - June 1. The automobile industry constitutes a paradox for established innovation theories. Few sectors have displayed such stability in their dominant product designs and incremental improvement of core technologies as the automotive industry, making it an archetypical example of a capital-intensive, oligopolistic sector competing on process efficiencies along stable trajectories. Emerging economies and state support have added a few new actors, and hard-pressed “old economies” have seen the demise of some older firms, but the basic industry structure has remained unchanged for a long time. Repeatedly researchers have expected this stable pattern to break down and open up for new radical departures, for example in the aftermath of the oil shocks in the early 1980s (Altshuler 1984), following rising environmental concerns (Nieuwenhuis and Wells 1997), or the Californian zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate (Pilkington and Dyerson 2005). But the incremental trajectory prevailed and researchers forecast that the industry would fail to accommodate new technologies or regulation. Extrapolating previous trends, Fontaras & Samaras (2010:1832), for example, argued that the European industry would have great difficulties in achieving EU´s emissions targets for 2012/15, since their technologies were already “being pushed to their limits”. In the same vein, the innovation theorist Clayton Christensen predicted that electrical vehicles implied a disruptive threat to established automakers “…the electric vehicle is not only a disruptive innovation, but it involves massive architectural reconfiguration as well, a reconfiguration that must occur not only within the product itself but across the entire value chain…”(Christensen, 1997/2003, p. 252). In the tradition of industrial life cycle studies, innovation and change was expected to come from new firms enjoying an “attacker´s advantage”, which incumbents with their “core rigidities” would have a hard time to match. And yet, the last five years have witnessed a remarkable vitality among automotive incumbents, both car makers (OEMs) and component specialists. Improvements in established technologies have accelerated, and far from being ”pushed to the limit”, a report from Transport & Environment, 2011 shows that automakers will comply with EU´s new CO2 emission limits well ahead of time. At the same time a range of new modular innovations are introduced, from multi-speed gearboxes and dual-clutch transmissions, advanced valve management systems and regenerative braking, to collision avoidance systems and other proactive safety equipment. Ten years after corporate lawyers succeeded in winding down the Californian Zero Emissions Mandate, electric vehicles have re-emerged on the back of advances in lithium-ion technologies. The new EV industry includes startups, such as Tesla and Fisker. But far from being caught off-guard, incumbents dominate sales and production. Whereas the highly publicized Tesla sold 2,500 roadsters 2008-2011, Nissan’s produced 10,000 Leaf cars in its first fiscal year ending in March 2011, and Mitsubishi 5,000 EVs in 2010. Rather than being a breakthrough opportunity for “attackers”, the surge in interest for electric vehicles offers Japanese incumbents who failed to compete with Toyota´s hybrid cars a new chance, making use of economies of both scale and scope. And far from implying a “massive architectural reconfiguration …across the entire value chain” the new technologies involve a dynamic expansion of supplier networks, with ample opportunities for incumbents such as Bosch, Continental and Valeo to augment product lines with profitable high-tech modules. The growth of Asian economies, in particular China, signifies an epochal shift in the centre of the industry, but so far this change has not threatened but created opportunities for Western incumbents. Taken over by Geely in 2010, Volvo Cars, for example, has embarked on its boldest expansion plans ever, doubling production capacity within a few years, and launching highly ambitious product and technology plans, with its Scalable Product Architecture for product development, a new platform for future power-trains (“Volvo Environmental Architechture”) and an ambition to take a lead in premium market for electrified vehicles, such as a plug-in diesel hybrids. How can this “incumbent vitality” be explained in theoretical terms? Previous GERPISA studies, for example Freyssenet (2009) has analyzed different corporate trajectories within the industry. This paper purports to analyze dynamics at an industry level, which neither fits the “creative destruction” framework, nor the notion of incremental innovation in stable structures. Instead the paper will propose creative accumulation as a fruitful concept to grasp the composite and contradictory nature of current developments in the auto industrial (cf Bergek et al 2011). Creative accumulation stresses the tension between the creativity aspect, implying responses outside of the range of existing practice, and the accumulation aspect, implying knowledge development on the basis of established practices. Creative accumulation means that new and old technological disciplines and areas of expertise have to interact in novel ways to develop products with substantially improved or changed performance. New fields of knowledge have to be aligned with existing, rapidly evolving, technologies – there is no Archimedian fixed point. The paper ends by discussing organizational implications, in particular the challenge of managing creative accumulation processes by means of dynamic integration, instead of separation and isolation, as recommended in the literature on disruptive innovation.

Thème: Management de l’innovation, changements technologiques, changements de business models

Thème: Managing innovation, technological change and new business models

Klier, Thomas, & Jim Rubenstein (2012).  Impact of the Economic Downturn on the Geography of Vehicle Production in Europe and North America. Gerpisa colloquium. The sharp economic downturn of 2008/2009 resulted in substantial declines in light vehicle sales and production in Europe and North America. This paper utilizes detailed plant-level production data for North America and Europe to investigate how the recession impacted the footprint of vehicle production in both regions.

Thème: Processus de restructuration des industries automobiles européennes, américaines et japonaises

Thème: Restructuring processes affecting the European, American and Japanese automotive industries

Kerpen, Daniel (2012).  The perils of obsolescence: The case of Opel. Gerpisa colloquium.

General Motors (GM), the world’s largest automaker in 2011, has been tremendously affected by the 2008-2009 automotive industry crisis: Facing the Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing on June 8, 2009, the GM management and US government officials since then paved the way for a massive company restructuring process (Senter and McManus, 2010). Although being stock market relisted since November 2010 with the largest IPO in US history and reporting an EBIT-adjusted income of $8.3 billion for 2011 calendar-year, the GM recovery process still remains open-ended.

Purpose and approach: The above outlined reorganization is heavily affecting GM’s European branch of automobile production (former GME, defunct since 2010). It’s most important European subsidiary, Adam Opel AG, still remains in the focus of actual trouble-shooting interventions: The question to be addressed in this proposal is the analysis of Opel’s trajectory being affected by GM’s restructuring.

Therefore, first contribution of the presentation will be a comparison of the economic situation of GME in general and Opel in particular in the wake of the 2008-2009 crisis (before/during/after). This will shed a light on the core problems actually still troubling Opel, while competitors like Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan quickly reported recovery of production and sales figures following the latest crisis.

Secondly, I will contribute by analyzing structural problems affecting the future Opel restructuring and the companies’ continuing search for a sustainable strategy and market appearance. Hence, the following analytical dimensions will be of special interest (Boyer and Freyssenet, 2002): 

1) Focussing on markets, preliminary results are by the end of 02/2012: the long criticized restricted market appearance and limited export possibilities for Opel do not allow any or only marginal participation on lucrative export markets like GM’s US home market, as well as the Brazilian and Chinese market; remaining core markets solely are the shrinking or at best stagnating British, German, French, and Southern European markets, whereas in the latter ones sales decline because of the European sovereign debt crisis. GM’s recently announced assistance in Opel’s international marketing and retailing expansion (e.g. in Chevrolet-focussed markets like Russia) has yet to prove its success.

2) Regarding the productive organization, we actually see that Opel’s production sites within the GM Global Manufacturing System (GMS) are limited to Europe, too. Furthermore, plant capacities are not sufficiently utilized (only approx. 75 % against a target utilization of at least 80 %). The co-operation with potential partners like Peugeot, as recently discussed under a new strategic GM-PSA-alliance or partnership, has to be evaluated, e.g. concerning potential benefits in special car segments like B/C-segments; but it remains questionable as a means of diminishing existing overcapacities instead of closing production facilities, a topic currently fuelled by discussions about possible future shutdowns of at least Bochum or Ellesmere Port production site.

3) Observing the company’s product policy, the brand image setback of the 1990s quality problems still troubles Opel today. Although actually being back on track concerning product quality, fuel efficiency, and service, Opel is still affected by budget cuts in R&D in the wake of the GM bankruptcy; which has delayed technological product portfolio revaluations like direct-shift gearboxes or high-compressed downsize ICEs. Finally, the long-awaited and much-applauded range-extended EV Ampera/Volt models have yet to prove their appraisals in advance.

4) Finally, looking at company governance processes, the continuously replacement of top-management positions is tensioning the employees. Furthermore, the employee side persistently clings to concessions in context of an Opel restructuring 2011-2014ff. agreement achieved in fall 2010 (Bloecker, 2011), which is actually already put into question again by GM management. Finally, the newly-elected head of works councils representatives, Schäfer-Klug, has yet to fit in the confident and media-present role which predecessor Franz played while pursuing the finally failed GM-Opel separation.

Conclusion: In sum, these points may not only generally contribute fruitfully to this year’s conference in the selected topic. They may also stimulate discussion in particular with specialized research agendas, for instance researchers interested in future GM trajectories, future prospects of Opel/GM plants, as well as interest in current policies and actions of works councils.

References: 

Bloecker, A., 2011. Chances and failures concerning sustainable location- and job protection: The Case of Opel Bochum [in German]. Presentation prepared for the workshop “Chances and failures concerning sustainable location- and job protection with special reference to OPEL”, promoted by Office of Cooperation RUB/IMU, Hans Boeckler Foundation and Otto Brenner Foundation, Bochum, 24 October 2011. Online available: http://www.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/rub-igm/Transfer/ZWISCHENERGEBNISSE_I.pdf

Boyer, R., Freyssenet, M., 2002. The Productive Models. The Conditions of Profitability, Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Senter, R. and McManus, W., 2010. General Motors’ Steps to Recovery. Paper prepared for the 18th Gerpisa International Colloquium, Berlin, 9-11 June 2010. Online available: http://gerpisa.org/en/node/728

Thème: Trajectoires et stratégies des constructeurs

Thème: Manufacturer trajectories and strategies

Carrillo, Jorge, & Oscar Contreras (2012).  Strategies of Automobile Multinational Firms in Mexico and GVC. Gerpisa colloquium. “Strategies of Automobile Multinational Firms in Mexico and GVC” Jorge Carrillo (COLEF) and Oscar Contreras (COLEF) (MEXICO) The broad theoretical discussion of automobile multinational corporations (AMNCs) and their impact on host country development reveals a significant proportion of controversy. Opinions on the impact of AMNCs proliferate, but it is necessary to present evidence based on carefully conducted empirical studies. An assessment of the involvement of subsidiaries operating in Mexico can see the extent to which industries are organized, regional development and territorial strategies and the implications of these processes to improve the impact of FDI through create jobs with higher value added and higher earnings. The purpose of this paper is to document the type of involvement with AMNCs in the Global Value Chain for carrying out operations in Mexico. Although it is generally accepted that the export sector plays a crucial role in economic growth in Mexico, and numerous studies prove it, the extent to which international trade and operations of multinational corporations can be the basis of a sustainable economic development long term has been questioned. This research tries to make a more precise level of business operation and not as is usually done at aggregated data. Multinational companies, domestic and foreign, are analyzed from a MNC firm census based on telephone interviews made in 2008, and from a face-to-face survey with HR managers in 2009. The survey is statistically representative of multinational companies established in Mexico. It will compare the auto MNCs and other manufacture MNCs operating in Mexico. The main goal is to identify the key investment strategies of automobile multinational corporations in Mexico from official sources and, in particular, from the study "Multinational Firms in Mexico: A study on the structure organizational innovation and employment practices." Define the investment strategies of multinationals is not a simple task because the definition itself of multinational can be very complex. The stages of internationalization in the case of Mexico are quiet important in the definition: the multinational as subsidiary, as export affiliated or global exporter. From these phases, four strategies are identified as major determinants of investment activities by multinational enterprises (Dunning, 1993, Behrman, 1972): a) Natural Resource-seeking, b) Market-seeking, c) Efficiency-seeking and d) Strategic assets-seeking or technological assets. This paper analyzes automobile multinational companies, domestic and foreign, in all different sectors, from the four strategies mentioned. It uses a multinational census based on phone interviews and a survey face-to-face with HR managers of multinational firms established in Mexico during 2009. The hypothesis is the following: in Mexico the automobile multinationals have specialized in the strategy of seeking efficiency through export, where it is expected that these companies keep a better position both in the global value chain as in their impact on working conditions compared to those manufacture companies whose primary investment strategy vary. Behrman, Jack (1972), “Industrial Integration and the Multinational Enterprise”, The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, No. 403, pp.46-57 Dunning, John H. (1993), Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy, Reading, Mass. y Wokingham, England, Addison Wesley.

Thème: Processus de restructuration des industries automobiles européennes, américaines et japonaises

Thème: Restructuring processes affecting the European, American and Japanese automotive industries

Brandes, Ove, Staffan Brege, & Per-Olof Brehmer (2012).  The Strategic Importance of Supplier Relationships in the Automotive Industry. Gerpisa colloquium. Which business strategy could be feasible for the development of the green car? After the financial crisis starting in Q3/2008, the US Government takeover of GM in 2009 and the global warming debate there are new rules of the game. The competition is not only between global companies but increasingly between national governments. We conclude that the winners in the automobile industry from 2010 on will be those who can organize long-term collaboration partnerships between the car makers, their suppliers, and the political stakeholders. This conclusion is drawn from our in-depth, longitudinal (1990-2010) case study of Volvo and Autoliv and is referring to the findings of Lorenzoni and Lipparini (1994) and Dyer and Nobeoka (2000), and Helper et al (2000, 2010).

Thème: Trajectoires et stratégies des équipementiers

Thème: Supplier trajectories and strategies

Le Gerpisa accueillait vendredi dans le cadre de ses journées mensuelles de travail (voir http://gerpisa.org/node/1538) Tommaso Pardi, sociologue et directeur adjoint du Gerpisa qui a, fin novembre, soutenu sa thèse portant sur les implantations japonaises en Europe et les difficultés qu’elles ont rencontrées. Intitulée "La révolution qui n'a pas eu lieu: les constructeurs japonais en Europe (1970-2010)", cette thèse importante propose, entre autres apports majeurs, une "histoire du lean" comme idéologie managériale qui s’impose dans les années 90 et reste depuis au cœur des discours mobilisateurs par lesquels passe la quête de l’amélioration des performances. C’est sur cette question spécifique qu’est intervenu T. Pardi ce vendredi en s’arrêtant longuement sur la genèse et l’accueil de l’ouvrage fondateur de nos collègues américains Womack, Jones et Roos qui publièrent en 1990 "The Machine that Changed the World" qui, avec le soutien de Raymond H. Lévy, alors patron de Renault qui le préfaça, fût traduit en France dès 1992 sous le titre "Le système qui va changer le monde". read more

Frigant, Vincent (2011).  The three major uncertainties facing the European automotive industry. European Review of Industrial Economics and Policy. The European automotive industry has once again entered a period of uproar. The crisis of 2008/2009 is far from over but probably marks the start of a new era that some observers are starting to refer to as the second automobile revolution. In this article -and more broadly throughout this special issue of the ERIEP, for which is serves as an introduction- we will be trying to emphasize three major uncertainties that weigh upon the European automotive industry. The first relates to the future products that the sector is looking to manufacture and sell. This will involve questions about electric vehicles but also how internal combustion vehicles might be sold to more tone-deaf European consumers. The second section will revisit the outsourcing strategies that have arisen over the past 30 years, together with their increasingly obvious limitations. The final section will highlight the profound geographic recomposition that has taken place under our eyes over the past decade or so, and which speaks directly to the issue of Old Europe’s productive capacities in the future.

La publication des résultats de GM au troisième trimestre 2011 a, de manière très significative, donné lieu à des commentaires et des titres très contrastés. En effet, d’un côté, GM redevient clairement le numéro 1 mondial avec 6,79 millions de véhicules sur les 9 premiers mois et Toyota qui avait pris la tête en 2008 rend aujourd’hui à GM plus d’un million de véhicule alors que VW est à 6,11. D’un autre côté, par rapport à 2010, les profits de GM sont en retrait de 12%.

Comme le souligne le Wall Street Journal, il est frappant de constater que GM est en 2011 dans une position symétrique de celle que l’on s’était habitué à constater du temps de "l’ancien GM" : les profits se font aux Etats-Unis et, accessoirement, en Chine; les opérations internationales sont plus problématiques et ce n’est plus seulement l’Europe qui tire les résultats vers le bas, l’Amérique du Sud, la Russie et l’Inde sont également problématiques. Les problèmes de change sont à l’origine d’une partie des problèmes mais c’est aussi l’orientation de beaucoup de ces marchés vers des véhicules modernes et moins chers qui causent les pertes de GM. read more

Les salariés de ce qui reste de l’automobile américaine (GM, Ford et Chrysler) devaient voir leur sort réglé à la mi-septembre : le terme des contrats qui les liaient aux entreprises était le 16 septembre et un nouveau contrat de 4 ans devait avoir été négocié dans les trois entreprises à cette date. L’accord n’ayant pu se dégager alors, les négociations entre l’UAW et le management des trois entreprises s’est prolongé et le premier accord s’est dégagé cette semaine chez GM. Il servira de référence chez Ford et Chrysler pour lesquels les négociations se poursuivent. read more

La presse nous rendait compte en fin de semaine des chances respectives d’une candidature européenne à la succession de DSK que pourrait incarner Christine Lagarde face à celles des mal nommés émergents. La question était au fond de savoir si le statu quo attaché au deal entre les Etats-Unis et l’Europe qui veut que la tête de la banque mondiale soit américaine et celle du FMI européenne pouvait être contesté par une coalition conduite par la Chine qui fait valoir que, les animaux malades de la peste financière étant plutôt en Europe, les Etats-Unis seraient avisés de ne pas laisser les trop proches des patients définir les traitements. Se voit ainsi incarnée une configuration dont nous commençons à être familiers au G20 ou encore à Copenhague : dans le jeu triangulaire qui structure très régulièrement désormais la plupart des grands dossiers, la coalition américano-chinoise peut faire de l’Europe le dindon de la farce géopolitique. read more

Belzowski, Bruce, & Walter McManus (2011).  Alternative powertrain strategies and fleet turnover in the 21st century. Gerpisa colloquium. The changes taking place in the global automotive industry related to alternative powertrains and fuels are affecting each country or region differently. Each country or region has its own policies in place to monitor and manage vehicle fuel consumption and emissions. Countries or regions also have different numbers of new vehicles sold annually and the total numbers of vehicles in their fleets. This analysis looks at the current and future direction of alternative powertrains/fuels across four developed economies (United States, Western Europe, Japan, and South Korea) and four developing economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) in order to measure the impact of increasing the number of alternative powertrains/fuels in their fleets. In particular, the analysis looks at how much of each country’s fleet will turn over to vehicles based only on alternative powertrains/fuels by 2050 by introducing three different alternative powertrain/fuel models (less aggressive, moderately aggressive, and very aggressive). A less aggressive approach will yield fleet turnover rates of 60 percent or more for most countries, a moderately aggressive approach will yield fleet turnover rates of over 80 percent for most countries, and a very aggressive approach will yield fleet turnover rates of nearly 90 percent or more for most countries.

Thème: Transformations technologiques, transformations systémiques

Thème: Technological transformations, systemic transformations