Brésil

Au Brésil : une industrie automobile sous contrôle

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La chronique hébdomadaire de Bernard Jullien directeur du Gerpisa.

Le Brésil a enregistré en 2011 des ventes de VP de plus de 3,4 millions d’unités (2,9% de mieux qu’en 2010) ainsi que des ventes de camions et de bus de 207 400 unités (en augmentation de 11,3%). Bien que le marché automobile ait marqué le pas en fin d’année, ceci permet au Brésil de disputer à l’Allemagne la place de 4ème marché mondial et à Fenabrave de prévoir pour 2012 une nouvelle augmentation de 4,5% pour les VP et de 9,6% pour les VI.

Convoité par la quasi-totalité des constructeurs mondiaux suivis par l’industrie équipementière, le Brésil ne cède cependant pas à l’euphorie. Ainsi, si les concessionnaires de la Fenabrave ne s’en émeuvent pas, les autorités ont vécu avec inquiétude le fait que les ventes de véhicules fabriqués au Brésil aient quant à elles baissé de 2,8% alors que celles de véhicules importés croissaient de 30% et atteignaient 858 000 unités. Ceci correspond à un déclin relatif à la fois de la part des"bi-carburations" qui passent de 86,4% à 83,1% et de celle des "carros populares" équipés de moteurs de 1 l qui passent de 50,8% à 45,2% alors qu’elles représentaient 71% des immatriculations en 2001. Dans la mesure où les exportations croissaient quant à elles de 7,7% pour atteindre 541 500 unités, ceci se traduit par une production d’automobiles au Brésil qui a stagné à 3,4 millions et suffit à déclencher les réactions du gouvernement. lire la suite

La Russie : laboratoire des ambitions françaises dans les émergents

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La chronique hébdomadaire de Bernard Jullien directeur du Gerpisa.

Les dix jours écoulés ont été dominés en France par les annonces très contrastées des deux constructeurs nationaux qui ont semblé à certains égards vivre dans deux mondes différents. Plus que leurs ventes en Europe et en France qui, chez PSA comme chez Renault baissent au troisième trimestre (de 11% et 4% respectivement), ce sont leurs capacités à profiter de la croissance des émergents, et, à terme, à y tenir des positions fortes qui sont en cause. Dans le même temps, l’accent était mis sur la Russie : AvtoVaz annonçait un doublement de ses profits au premier semestre et l’entrée de la Russie dans l’OMC- que retardaient en particulier les exigences fixées par l’Etat russe en matière automobile – semble se dessiner pour décembre. lire la suite

Industrie automobile. La croisée des chemins

Jullien, Bernard, & Yannick Lung (2011).  Industrie automobile. La croisée des chemins. Etudes. L’industrie automobile a profondément structuré nos sociétés au XXe siècle : ses procédés de fabrication, ainsi que ses rapports sociaux, se sont étendus à l’ensemble de l’industrie, cependant que la généralisation de la possession de voitures individuelles structurait autour d’elle les espaces urbains. Cette prédominance a été contestée dans les années 1970, avec la critique de la société de consommation et la mise au jour des problèmes de sécurité et de pollution engendrés par la circulation. Plus tard, l’explosion de la demande, puis de la production, dans les pays émergents va poser de façon plus aiguë les questions de la limitation des ressources fossiles et des conséquences climatiques du tout-voiture. La crise de 2008 a accentué la prise de conscience de la nécessité de réviser au niveau mondial les procédés de fabrication et les usages de l’automobile. Confrontée à de nouveaux défis, l’industrie (notamment française – Renault et PSA) a commencé à explorer des pistes : production dans les pays émergents de véhicules très bon marché également vendables dans les pays développés, délocalisation des activités de conception, perspectives prometteuses de la voiture électrique dès lors que s’ouvrent de vastes marchés... L’industrie automobile semble être au seuil d’une révolution.
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Fiat–Chrysler : et si Moody’s avait raison ?

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La chronique hébdomadaire de Bernard Jullien directeur du Gerpisa.

Entre deux sorties médiatiques, sur la nécessité de revoir la politique monétaire européenne, la négociation sociale en Italie ou les opportunités d’une alliance avec Suzuki, Marchionne n’a guère eu de temps pour commenter la dégradation de la note de l’entité qu’il a constituée en juillet en passant à 53,5% du capital de Chrysler et en prenant la présidence début septembre : d’évidence, la nouvelle du passage de Ba1 à Ba2 n’était pas dans son "story telling". Pourtant, les fondements de cette dégradation ne se limitent pas à l’espèce de moyenne des notes de Chrysler (B2) et de Fiat (Ba1 donc) avant l’intégration qui a été évoquée dans les commentaires les plus rapides. lire la suite

Video: Plenary sessions - 8th of June 2011 - Is the Second Automobile Revolution on the Way

Date: 
08/06/2011
François Gayral, Direction Marketing  & Communication Monde, Renault
Pascal Feillard, Direction Stratégie Produits Marchés, PSA
Jean-Paul Bailly, Président du CECRA
Olivier Melis, Président de Mobivia
Philippe Payen, Directeur de la Stratégie, de la Recherche et du Développement Durable de Veolia

Emission / Séminaire / Colloque: 

19th Gerpisa International Colloquium

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Plenary session I. Between greening and BRICs: trade offs and synergies

Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan

Michel Freyssenet, CNRS

François Gayral, Direction Marketing  & Communication Monde, Renault
Pascal Feillard, Direction Stratégie Produits Marchés, PSA

Plenary session II. Reconfiguration of the value chains: old and new actors in the automobile system

 


Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan 

Jean-Paul Bailly, President of CECRA
Philippe Payen, Director of Strategy, Research and Sustainable Development

Olivier Melis, General Director of Mobivia

 

Organised with the support of the Ministry of Research

 

Vidéo: Sessions Plénières - 8 juin 2011 - La Seconde Révolution Automobile est-elle en cours ?

Date: 
08/06/2011
François Gayral, Direction Marketing  & Communication Monde, Renault
Pascal Feillard, Direction Stratégie Produits Marchés, PSA
Jean-Paul Bailly, Président du CECRA
Olivier Melis, Président de Mobivia
Philippe Payen, Directeur de la Stratégie, de la Recherche et du Développement Durable de Veolia

Emission / Séminaire / Colloque: 

19ème Colloque International du Gerpisa

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Session plénière I. Réduire les émissions et être présents dans les marchés émergents : quelles politiques produits et quels arbitrages 


Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan

Michel Freyssenet, CNRS

François Gayral, Direction Marketing  & Communication Monde, Renault
Pascal Feillard, Direction Stratégie Produits Marchés, PSA

Session plénière II. Restructuration des chaines de valeur : anciens et nouveaux acteurs dans le système automobile 


Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan 

Jean-Paul Bailly, Président du CECRA

Olivier Melis, Président de Mobivia
Philippe Payen, Directeur de la Stratégie, de la Recherche et du Développement Durable de Veolia


 

Réalisé avec l'aide du ministère chargé de la recherche

Automotive mobility in the world. What alternatives ?

Feillard, Pascal (2011).  Automotive mobility in the world. What alternatives ?. Pascal Feillard Head of Marketing Intelligence & Foresight Secretary General of IVM Mobility :  Ability of individuals to set up a physical link between their activities (i.e. social/economic/cultural) and their housing and to manage the changes of state and location Some data 70-75% of European Mobility is done with automobile 60% of European Mobility is urban or peri-urban In 2009, 50% of the world population lives in urban areas, 80% in the developed countries In 2020, 60% of the world population will live in urban areas, 80% in the developing countries Of the 20 largest urban areas, only 3 will be in developed countries (Tokyo, New York et Los Angeles) What automobile for what cities in 2015/2020 ?

Alternative powertrain strategies and fleet turnover in the 21st century

Belzowski, Bruce, & Walter McManus (2011).  Alternative powertrain strategies and fleet turnover in the 21st century. Gerpisa colloquium. The changes taking place in the global automotive industry related to alternative powertrains and fuels are affecting each country or region differently. Each country or region has its own policies in place to monitor and manage vehicle fuel consumption and emissions. Countries or regions also have different numbers of new vehicles sold annually and the total numbers of vehicles in their fleets. This analysis looks at the current and future direction of alternative powertrains/fuels across four developed economies (United States, Western Europe, Japan, and South Korea) and four developing economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) in order to measure the impact of increasing the number of alternative powertrains/fuels in their fleets. In particular, the analysis looks at how much of each country’s fleet will turn over to vehicles based only on alternative powertrains/fuels by 2050 by introducing three different alternative powertrain/fuel models (less aggressive, moderately aggressive, and very aggressive). A less aggressive approach will yield fleet turnover rates of 60 percent or more for most countries, a moderately aggressive approach will yield fleet turnover rates of over 80 percent for most countries, and a very aggressive approach will yield fleet turnover rates of nearly 90 percent or more for most countries.

De la nouvelle géographie de la production au nouveau paysage géostratégique dans l’automobile mondiale

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La chronique hébdomadaire de Bernard Jullien directeur du Gerpisa.

La parution des chiffres de l’Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles (OICA) sur la production 2010 dans le monde a été relativement peu commentée. Elle fait pourtant apparaître de manière criante le caractère irréversible de l’irruption d’un nouvel ordre automobile mondial. En effet, outre le fait que la Chine assure désormais presque un quart de la production (18,2 millions des 77,6 millions de VP et de VUL fabriqués dans le monde), l’importance prise par les nouveaux pays de l’automobile durant la crise ressort avec éclat. Si l’on compare ainsi 2010 à 2007 où la production mondiale avait été de 73,3 millions, il ressort que les seuls BRIC représentaient en 2007 moins de 16 millions de véhicules produits (21,4% de la production mondiale) alors qu’en 2010 ils en auront assemblés 27 millions (c’est à dire 34,6%). De même, dans la hiérarchie mondiale des pays constructeurs, la France était encore au 6ème rang en 2007. En ayant vu sa production passer de 3 à 2,2 millions alors que la production croissait rapidement ailleurs, Brésil, Inde, Mexique et Espagne sont désormais devant elle et la France pointe au 10ème rang. Au sein de l’Europe, le redéploiement des productions est également très frappant puisque, avec une production de 857 000 véhicules, l’Italie est par exemple devenue un producteur de moindre importance que la République Tchèque ou la Pologne. lire la suite

Consolidating technological capabilities in mature Brazilian automotive subsidiaries: from local creativity to global institutionalization… and beyond?

Bagno, Raoni Barros, Ana Valéria Carneiro Dias, Maria Cecília Pereira, Thiago Leite Moura de Souza, & Marina Coelho Bachour (2011).  Consolidating technological capabilities in mature Brazilian automotive subsidiaries: from local creativity to global institutionalization… and beyond?. Gerpisa colloquium. In a previous GERPISA paper (Dias and Salerno, 2004) we have proposed that Brazil was emerging as a peripheral product development center, with multinational companies descentralizing some selected R,D&E activities towards their Brazilian subsidiaries. Since then, Brazilian subsidiaries have launched some successful local developed products and technologies, such as the flex fuel engine, the Locker device to front transversal transmissions, and other localized solutions in system/component level. This trajectory has led to a process of recognition of local competences by the headquarters, and a consequent formalization of local R&D activities, an increase in the number of engineers in product development activities and the diffusion and adoption of structured product development methodologies, some of them transferred from the headquarters (Dias et al, 2010), thus consolidating the position of Brazil as a secondary R,D&E pole. At the same time, an examination of the Brazilian automotive industry technological path will show that new products and technologies have in many cases been the result of individual or local informal groups initiatives, with individual creativity being the most important trigger to local product innovation. Brazilian engineers have learned how to innovate and develop local products without being tightly controlled by the headquarters. Sometimes a local product or technology would be developed from the concept to the first prototypes without a formalized process under headquarters direct control. A good example is the case of the only patent generated by a Brazilian engineering in Fiat, concerning a technology created to improve the performance of ethanol engine cold start system. The concept of the technology was developed in a completely not formalized way – an informal team was created, based on personal relationship, and engineers worked outside their regular work time in order to create the concept until the building of the first prototypes. Another example is the case of VW Fox, a smaller derivative from the New Polo platform, which was proposed by the Brazilian unit and at first was not approved by the headquarters. Only after a 2-year negotiation its development was allowed; within this time, the Brazilian engineering had to work on its concept and first virtual prototypes and cost definitions in an almost independent way (Dias and Salerno, 2004). At this point one could ask if a stronger formalization controlled by the headquarters would not difficult local innovation, given the subordinated nature of a subsidiary unit – especially when located in an emergent country. Indeed, the literature about organization for innovation uses to stress that a certain degree of organizational “looseness” is necessary in order to promote innovation, particularly in the early stages of the innovation process (among others, Hansen and Birkinshaw, 2007; McCosh et al, 1998; Tidd et al, 1997). This literature also considers that in order to innovate it is useful to keep an entrepreneurship oriented internal environment. On the other hand, lack of formal incentives, such as financial resources, may kill a new idea in the first steps of the innovation process. Given this picture, the aim of this paper is to describe and analyze the process of formalization of innovation activities in a Brazilian subsidiary of a European autopart company. This subsidiary is considered a “mature” unit, since it was set up in Brazil in the 1970s, and presents a trajectory of local innovation – from tropicalization to local product/technology development – which is very typical of the industry. The paper deepens, in a way, the discussion we have proposed in a paper presented in the last GERPISA conference (Dias et al, 2010), and introduces the question of what is changing to the local R,D&E organizational structure as well as to the engineers’ work, focusing on which are the benefits and risks of a stronger formalization of R,D&E activities, particularly in the new concept development phase – how to institutionalize the idea generation step without giving up creativity and individual or group initiative.

Recent evolutions in R&D activities in the Brazilian automotive industry

Dias, Ana Valéria Carneiro, Raoni Barros Bagno, Otávio Silva Camargo, Maria Cecília Pereira, & Gustavo Britto (2011).  Recent evolutions in R&D activities in the Brazilian automotive industry. Gerpisa colloquium. During the 1990s, the Brazilian automotive industry had undergone some profound changes in its structure, with economic liberalization, the New Automotive Regime, new assemblers and autoparts plants and its insertion in the global strategies of multinational companies. Research, development and engineering (R,D&E) activities in local firms had also been transformed, and it seemed that Brazil was emerging as a peripheral product development center, in a process that was deeply analyzed by some GERPISA researchers (such as Carneiro Dias and Salerno, 2003; Consoni and Quadros, 2003). Indeed, in 2003 it was launched a new-to-the-world, locally developed technology which had had a great impact in local market: the flex fuel technology. From the institutional side, a new federal law (known as “Lei do Bem”) which consolidates fiscal incentives linked to the promotion of R,D&E activities by local firms was promulgated in 2005. Since then, what has happened to R,D&E activities in the Brazilian auto industry? Did the flex fuel case help to promote Brazilian subsidiaries as a competence center to their headquarters? How did the industry react to the Lei do Bem? What is the current status of Brazilian subsidiaries, in which relates to R,D&E activities? Is there any kind of competition with other peripheral centers that might have emerged, such as China, India or South Africa? In this paper, it will be presented an analysis of the current profile of R,D&E activities in the Brazilian automotive industry, based on three different sources: data from the Brazilian National Innovation Survey (PINTEC) from 2003, 2005 and 2008; a survey, carried out in 2010, with 69 Brazilian autoparts subsidiaries; and 8 case studies conducted in one assembler and seven of its first and second tier suppliers. Among other findings, the results showed that, in the Brazilian automotive industry, both the spending in innovative activities as a whole, and in internal R&D in particular, have increased in the period. Interestingly, autoparts companies were the main responsible for this increase, when compared to the motorvehicles firms. Both vehicle assemblers and autoparts have been reinforcing their local engineering in the period, hiring engineers and technical workforce, inaugurating laboratories, formalizing product development processes and increasing workers’ qualification. Most of the firms rely on partnership with clients, suppliers and other firms in their group for their innovative activities. On the other hand, partnership with local universities and research institutes are much less common.

Brazil: Autos and Ethanol – marriage of international investors and local resources

McDermott, Michael, Denise Luethge, Marcio Cinelli, & Philippe Byosiere (2011).  Brazil: Autos and Ethanol – marriage of international investors and local resources. Gerpisa colloquium.

 Brazil: Autos and Ethanol – marriage of international investors and local resources

In common with other industries (e.g. energy), since the 1973 oil crisis the automobile industry has witnessed substantial investment in new technologies that are designed to address the economic and environmental costs associated with continued reliance upon oil. Such concerns have been exacerbated more recently by political considerations too and a desire to be increasingly energy self-sufficient. In recent years, major developed country manufacturers have made progress in introducing vehicles affording technological innovation in terms of fuel, and in 2011 several have or are introducing their first all electric vehicle(s). However, in many if not all developed country markets, conventional vehicles and gasoline continue to dominate the market.
There is one notable exception and that is Brazil and its reliance upon flexible-fuel vehicles and ethanol. This is a noteworthy example of the automobile industry adjusting successfully to the specific traits of the primary industry – in this case the local agricultural sector and sugar cane. Brazil is the world’s second largest producer of ethanol (34%), after the USA (55%).
In 1973 the Brazilian government introduced laws to compel the use of ethanol with gasoline. However, it was not until some 30 years later that Volkswagen launched in Brazil the first ever  flexible-fuel vehicle. The fleet in Brazil is now the largest in the world, and a total of 10.6 million cars and light trucks have been produced up to June 2010. By 2010 manufacturers that build flexible fuel vehicles include other major European and Japanese producers as well as GM and South Korean Kia. There are though significant regional variations in terms of ethanol use within the country.
This paper has a unique focus in that attention focuses upon a country that is simultaneously one of the most prominent Big Emerging Markets, namely Brazil, and which is also a huge auto market that is dominated by foreign auto producers. Despite foreign domination, multinationals have been adept at local adaptation, and thus Brazil is unique in that a large proportion of vehicles are dependent upon ethanol.
This paper therefore examines Brazil as a major host nation, and sheds light on a crucial aspect of international business strategy and management, namely foreign subsidiary strategy and entrepreneurship. At the same time, it considers too the role of government policy in directing manufacturers to develop flex vehicles. The Brazil example highlights the challenges facing international players as they seek to be locally-responsive and at the same time globally competitive. It provides an opportunity to consider whether aspects of the Brazil experience are transferable to other economies. As world food prices escalate to record levels in 2011, controversy surrounds ethanol derived from corn.
 
References
“Theme and variations”, The Economist,
“The post-alcohol world: Biofuels are Back”, The Economist, October 28, 2010. http://www.economist.com/node/17358802?story_id=17358802
 
“Ethanol’s Mid-Life Crisis”, The Economist, September 2, 2010. http://www.economist.com/node/16952914?story_id=16952914 retrieved February 2, 2011
 

Institutions, Technological and Commercial Innovations in the Brazilian Ethanol Industry

Amatucci, Marcos, & Eduardo E. Spers (2011).  Institutions, Technological and Commercial Innovations in the Brazilian Ethanol Industry. Gerpisa colloquium. Institutions, Technological and Commercial Innovations in the Brazilian Ethanol Industry In Brazil one of the most promising sources of renewable energy is ethanol and, more recently, biodiesel. Biofuels could bring not only significant environmental, social and economic advantages, but also contributes to innovation process such as flex fuel engines for cars and motorcycles. This paper investigates the Brazilian sugar cane governance structure and how the institutional environment influences the innovation process in the automotive sector. Institutional demand for sustainable power has pushed the development of more efficient systems and technologies and also a diversification of supply sources, especially of clean and renewable energies. Several countries are seeking to reduce the use of these fuels, either by replacement of the product or by adding other fuels to decrease the polluting. This paper focuses on the Brazilian experience in structure this sustainable strategy and how the innovation was spread to the automotive industry and ethanol chain stimulated by the institutional governance structure. Methodology was based on in-depth interviews with specialists and managers of the sector and in secondary data collected from other researches, associations and public and private organizations. Results show how the innovation process was structured, which agents coordinate the knowledge development and flow, and how information and skills spread throughout the automotive sector. In the one hand, in ethanol production the governance structure was based in a strong relationship between agriculture and industry that solves the problem of coordination and gives the supports for a rapid grow in the scale production. The sugar cane industry uses this economy of scale to invest in agricultural and industry innovations. Some research associations are owned by ethanol organisations; nevertheless government itself still invests in promoting innovation, mainly in the agricultural sector. UNICA, the largest Brazilian (private) association of ethanol organisations, contributes significantly to the governance structure of the industry innovation, supporting also the communication and promotion of the product in other countries. In the other hand, innovation in the automotive sector emerges as a result of a combination of technological innovation in the suppliers sphere with institutional change in the economical and political environment, which pushed the market as a hole to adopt the “flex” technology. With a device installed in the car Brazilian consumers could choose which fuel combination (petrol and ethanol) is more attractive regarding their values perceptions (Amatucci; Spers, 2010). The analysis of the flex fuel engine technology adoption by the Brazilian automakers brings to light a clear process that has a parallel with the California experience. In the technological development phase, suppliers had worked alone without support neither from the industry or the government. In Brazil, the Brazilian sections of Bosch (since 1988) and Magneti Marelli (since the middle 1990s) worked in prototypes of the flex fuel, granting lower costs to the expensive sensor formerly necessary to balance the fuel mixture. With this kind of governance structure the lack of support was so dramatic that the suppliers had to buy their cars in the market in order to develop and test the prototypes. The innovations were presented to the major Brazilian sections of the global automakers, but it wouldn’t evolve to a market solution yet. Apparently the automakers and the consumer market were still resentful of the past experience with pure alcohol engines, which sales relied on governmental tax incentives, but suffered from ethanol supply shortages, caused by the incipient development of the ethanol industry. It was not until in an IPT (Technological Research Institute) from University of Sao Paulo event, where Bosh and Magneti Marelli had the opportunity to expose their technology to the industry and to govern representatives that the situation was changed. With the entrance of IPT in the game the new governance structure of innovation got the govern attention, and the incentives of the pure ethanol engine were granted to the (future) flex fuel engines. Only then the automakers fully adopted the innovation. The process early in California had followed the same path. In the beginning of the 1980s, the American section of Robert Bosch developed a somewhat expensive but effective version of the flex fuel engine which didn’t take off until CARB (California Air Resources Board) manage to getting approval from the USA senate of the Alternative Fuels Act, and then American auto industry adopted the innovation, leading to an expressive number of flex engines sold in the American market even without enough ethanol available for all the cars. These similarities suggest a model of evolution from the technological innovation to market adoption with institutional changes acting as the governance structure of the process. Figure 1 below shows such model: Basic and Independent Technological Developments (prototypes) -> -> Consumers, Public and Private awareness and path dependence of the social benefits of the innovation -> Institutional Changes: Efficiente Governance Structure of Innovations in the ethanol and automotive sectors-> Economies of Scale and Market adoption of the innovation Figure 1 – Institutional changes and governance structure mediating the market adoption of a technological innovation. In conclusion the institutional changes in the case of ethanol fuel in Brazil provides a stable governance structure to mediate the development of all phases of the production chain from sugarcane to the automobile; and economic agents such as UNICA and Brazilian government are striving for international institutional changes in order to extend the production chain to a global one.

What is the Role for Brazil in the New Automotive Industry? Threats and opportunities in a changing future for the car and its industry

Zilbovicius, Mauro, & Roberto Marx (2011).  What is the Role for Brazil in the New Automotive Industry? Threats and opportunities in a changing future for the car and its industry. Gerpisa colloquium. The automotive industry invented the car and the assembly line. This industry is one of the most important forces that shaped the 20th century. Work organization, mobility, logistics, the use of land, urban landscape, pollution, fossil energy in large scale, are just some of the elements this industry produced. During the first decade of the 21st century, this industry is very much under scrutiny and stress. It has been attacked from different fronts: the air pollution is one of these fronts. The electric / hybrid car is considered by some analysts as an answer to this front but this is far from solving the problem. The sustainability issue, that was taken by the economy as a new form of value creation, alongside with social outcry, demands other initiatives: much more recycling, less congestion in urban large and medium centers, less urban impacts (deaths caused by traffic, less space for cars, etc). New materials and new forms of energy will also deeply affect technology in the industry. Alongside the technological and social fronts, the last 20 years on the 20th century showed the surge of new strong players in the industry: first Korean, then Indian and Chinese companies are occupying strong market shares, mainly in new emerging economies. There is a new paradigm, mixing technology and socially acceptable ways of mobility that is being developed. New entrants are acquiring capabilities that were not needed before, and new consumers demand products that must be developed from different design principles. What and how this roughly described panorama affects the Brazilian Automotive Industry? What opportunities does it offer? Some of these issues will be presented and discussed in this paper. a) One of the biggest markets in the world, fourth producer in 2010, Brazil does not have a Brazilian private corporation in the business of automobile production. Decisions are made in headquarters outside the country. The location of headquarters is not merely a geographical matter. Headquarters tend to concentrate decisions, and they are taken in an environment that is socially, culturally and politically determined. b) The introduction of new technologies, mainly regarding energy, but not only, will challenge investments already made in Brazil. A scenario of old technology left in mass production countries, for cheap products, cannot be discarded for the next 20 years or so. The absence of a corporative decision center can make a lot of difference in this case. c) In other hand, opportunities also may arise: is there space for the creation of a Brazilian owned assembler that would invest in a small electric (and maybe cheap) car? How could Brazil take advantage for being a big ethanol producer in an innovative engine design? The automobile industry will certainly be reshaped. The way cars are designed, produced and used, and the way they impact society, will change profoundly in the next years. A mature industry is transforming radically, and the good news are that there are different possibilities and different entry doors for the future. Clean and effective mobility is a demand that can be fulfilled in different ways. The crisis of the old paradigm opens new possibilities, but requires solutions far from restricted to the technological or manufacturing spheres. What are the possible scenarios for the near future, and what must be the agenda for Brazilian government and private investors? The proposed paper will build and discuss these scenarios, producing a reflection about different possibilities and answers Brazilian industry could – and must – offer and develop in order to gain advantage in a turning point moment for the industry.

Which Segment is the biggest Sales Zone in Chinese Automobile Market?

Shioji, Hiromi (2011).  Which Segment is the biggest Sales Zone in Chinese Automobile Market?. Gerpisa colloquium.

We try to examine these three issues.

1.We analyze where are the sales volume segments in developing countries, and in particular in China.

2.We confirm the fact that Japanese makers put importance to middle and high price range in developing countries.

3.We consider why and how Japanese makers can put importance to middle and high price range. Moreover, from long terms viewpoints, how long will they keep its strategy.

Our conclusions are follows.

1.Sales volume zone is different from one country to another. Segment structure has been changing even in same country. Focal segments are different by countries.

2.At present volume zone in emerging markets are B and C segments. Price ranges are $6,000~30,000. Moreover the biggest volume zone is lower half of B seg. Price range are $6,000~12,000.

3.Shares of A segment have been decreasing in Russia, China, and India. Non automobile categories have been reducing excepting India.

4.As results of above 1. 2. 3.,Japanese makers can continue to take a middle and high price (mainly B, C,  D, and E segments) strategy for long period.

5.Demand for C・D・E segments (especially $10,000~40,000) have not been yet saturated. Commoditization of automobile has not come. Comparing with other industries, “Introduction” and “Growing” phases of product-life cycle in the emerging countries need long time, makers of developed countries might take a middle and high price vehicles strategy in emerging markets for long period.

6.On the other hand, low price ranges in A・B segments are “Red Ocean” with bloody battle including Chinese makers. We can not find “Blue Ocean” with no competitors. Because Chinese makers can easily enter the markets of ULCV・LCV such as Nano.

7.It is wrong that Japanese maker enter these ULCV・LCV price range markets right now in emerging countries. The reasons of that are followings. Firstly they can not maintain safety standards and environmental standards at such a low cost. Secondly it cause brand deterioration. Thirdly they can not get profit from “Red Ocean.” Lastly they can take a middle and high price vehicles strategy in emerging markets for long period, because the Introduction and Growing phases of product-life cycle will continue for more years in emerging countries.

L’émergence du Brésil comme acteur majeur de l’automobile mondiale ou les vertus de la régulation

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La chronique hébdomadaire de Bernard Jullien directeur du Gerpisa.

Le Gerpisa organisait vendredi une de ses journées de travail mensuelles sur l’automobile brésilienne et sa trajectoire récente. Nous avions invité pour nous en parler Mario Salerno, Professeur à Sao Paulo et membre de l’International Steering Committee du Gerpisa. Le tableau qu’il dresse de l’industrie et du marché brésilien permet de prendre la mesure du décalage qui existe en ce début de décennie entre les conjonctures et les perspectives que vivent respectivement les grands émergents et les anciens pays développés comme le nôtre. lire la suite

Bernard Jullien interviewé par les Echos

Date: 
17/11/2010
Emission / Séminaire / Colloque: 
Les Echos de l'Eco

Bernard Jullien, économiste et directeur général du Gerpisa, répond aux questions de Marie-Sophie Carpentier à l'occasion de l'introduction en Bourse de General Motors.

Entre mutations industrielles et « conduite apaisée »

Crozet, Yves (2010).  Entre mutations industrielles et « conduite apaisée » . sociétal. 70(4ème trimestre), 62-68.
L’automobile est en crise : crise de l’emploi – les effectifs employés dans ce secteur ne cessent de reculer – crise de légitimité – les élus ne jurent que par les transports en commun – crise technologique – la pollution qu’elle suscite est systématiquement montrée du doigt. Et pourtant, rien ne se fera sans elle. Il n’est qu’à voir l’appétit automobile dont font preuve les pays émergents. 
 

 

La seconde révolution automobile et ses contours

Jullien, Bernard (2010).  La seconde révolution automobile et ses contours. Sociétal. 70(4ème trimestre), 54-61.

Les travaux du GERPISA sur le développement durable de l’industrie automobile conduisent à former un diagnostic au terme duquel les ferments d’une seconde révolution automobile sont réunis. 

U ne évolution inéluctable de l’industrie automobile se précise mois après mois même si beaucoup des acteurs majeurs de la vie de cette industrie restent convaincus du contraire. Pour essayer de s’en convaincre et commencer d’en cerner les contours, on peut examiner tour à tour quatre questions clés posées de manière récurrente : la première est celle de la place des grands pays automobiles dans le paysage mondial, la deuxième, celle de la place des constructeurs dans les systèmes automobiles, la troisième, celle de la solvabilité de la demande et du « consentement à payer » pour l’automobile et la dernière, celle du partage des rôles entre pouvoirs publics et entreprises dans les recompositions des 
systèmes automobiles. 
 

L’avenir de l’auto se construit dans la crise

Pelata, Patrick (2010).  L’avenir de l’auto se construit dans la crise. Sociétal. 70(4ème trimestre), 39-47.
Dans le paysage automobile mondial qui se redessine, les vainqueurs seront ceux qui mettront au point le véhicule électrique efficace, correspondant aux besoins des nouveaux marchés, c’est-à-dire ceux des pays émergents. 
 
Jaguar, Land Rover, Saab, Volvo et le Coréen Ssang-Yong vendus depuis 2008… à des constructeurs indiens ou chinois pour les quatre plus gros d’entre eux. GM numéro un mondial depuis 80 ans et Chrysler mis en faillite en juin 2009, le premier sauvé grâce à une intervention colossale de l’Etat américain, le second désormais contrôlé par Fiat avec l’argent des mêmes contribuables américains… 
Une crise structurelle de l’industrie, mais aussi une crise d’identité de la voiture. Oui, l’industrie automobile a été particulièrement touchée par la « grande récession » depuis mi-2008. Surcapacités dans les pays développés, conséquences mal digérées de la globalisation, résistance aux changements attendus par les clients, organisations 
trop lourdes et donc ankylosées ?
On lit beaucoup d’explications sur le sujet. Mais une chose est sûre, cette crise se double, pour l’automobile, d’une crise d’identité : la voiture de demain ne sera pas ce qu’elle a été et ceci pour de nombreuses raisons. 
 

 

Derrière les bons résultats des constructeurs européens, l’espoir peu réaliste d’un recentrage sur les émergents

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La chronique hébdomadaire de Bernard Jullien directeur du Gerpisa.

Dans un  contexte d’atonie persistante de la demande européenne, les constructeurs PSA et VW annoncent des résultats commerciaux insolemment brillants. Ils semblent d’ores et déjà bénéficier en cela de leur présence dans les émergents et, en particulier en Chine. Même Renault, pourtant absent de Chine, a indiqué cette semaine que son premier semestre 2010 serait fort satisfaisant. lire la suite

Mercosur's Place in Carmakers' Internationalisation Strategies

Lung, Yannick (2010).  Mercosur's Place in Carmakers' Internationalisation Strategies. Actes du Gerpisa. 42, 41-54.

The present paper details the way in which automobile multinationals have integrated Mercosur into their internationalisation strategy by focusing on four questions: Which vehicle models are being manufactured and marketed in this region? What is the region’s role in designing automobile products? How are production activities organised here? Do they indicate a Mercosur-driven regional integration schema?

 

The Prospects and Limits to the Development of the Automotive Periphery

Domanski, Boleslaw (2010).  The Prospects and Limits to the Development of the Automotive Periphery. (Domanski B., Ed.).Actes du Gerpisa. 42,

The papers published in this issue of Actes du GERPISA focus on the evolution of the automotive industry in the peripheral countries and their changing role in the international division of labour in the automotive industry. The first aim is to achieve a better understanding of factors and mechanisms that spur and/or hinder industrial upgrading in less developed countries as defined according to Gereffi (2005) as a ‘move from low-value to relatively high-value activities in global production networks’. This is related to the issue of the long-term prospects of the peripheral countries, i.e. the debate as to what extent their position can be sustained in the long run and how far the observed processes of functional upgrading in the international value chain can continue. These problems have gained special importance in the situation of the current crisis. One of the conclusions drawn by Humphrey, Lecler and Salerno (2000) was that a scenario of regional segmentation of the global vehicle industry was more likely than global homogeneity.
The trend towards regionalism has been supported by Freyssenet, Shimizu and Volpato (2003) and Carrillo, Lung and Van Tulder (2004). The papers in this issue discuss the development trajectories of countries that represent three different types of automotive periphery (see Humphrey, Lecler, Salerno, 2000): Mexico as an example of the Integrated Peripheral Market strongly integrated into the North American Free Trade Area (Sturgeon, Gereffi, Rogers, and Stark-Fernandez, this issue; Contreras, Carrillo, and Estrada, this issue), Mercosur as the case of the Emerging Regional Market not integrated into the Triad (Lung, this issue), and China as the best example of the Protected Autonomous Market and now the second largest automobile market behind the United States (Bungsche, this issue).

Economic growth, social development and crisis management: recent evolution of the auto industry in Brazil

Salerno, Mario Sergio, & Glauco Arbix (2010).  Economic growth, social development and crisis management: recent evolution of the auto industry in Brazil. Gerpisa colloquium. The paper discusses the growth of the Brazilian automotive industry relating it to socio-economical conditions of the country. It also discuss the 2008-9 crisis and the policies undertaken by Brazilian government to cope with it. In brief, automotive growth is linked to the country’s economic growth led by stabilization of the currency, income distribution and raise in real wages, a very comfortable situation of internal and external debts, the increase of credit conditions (credit level are still low in the country). Virtually all passenger cars produced are flex-fuel, that is, run both with gasoline or ethanol; even gasoline has around 25% of ethanol in its composition, with no state subsidies: production is competitive regarding gasoline. Energetic and C balance of Brazilian ethanol is very positive; it is made of sugar cane, not of corn or food crops like in the US or other countries. That raises Brazil as a very “green” player in the auto industry.

La crise accélère le déplacement du centre de gravité de l’automobile mondiale

Les Chinois arrivent...

La chronique hébdomadaire de Bernard Jullien directeur du Gerpisa.

Alors que le printemps annonce pour l’Europe et la France un assez net repli des immatriculations encore gonflées au début de l’année par la livraison de véhicules commandés fin 2009, la Chine continue d’afficher des taux de croissance insolents avec pour février un enviable + 55% qui inquiéterait presque les analystes dans la mesure où il renvoie à une décélération très nette par rapport à janvier où les ventes avaient cru de 115%. Dans la semaine, Autoactu nous annonçait de même que l’acquisition de Volvo par Geely serait finalisée dans les jours à venir et, surtout, que BYD envisageait sérieusement de lancer deux voitures électriques en Europe durant l’année 2011 après avoir, il y a peu, conclu un accord avec Daimler AG. lire la suite

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