Brésil

Jullien, Bernard, & Yannick Lung (2011).  Industrie automobile. La croisée des chemins. Etudes. L’industrie automobile a profondément structuré nos sociétés au XXe siècle : ses procédés de fabrication, ainsi que ses rapports sociaux, se sont étendus à l’ensemble de l’industrie, cependant que la généralisation de la possession de voitures individuelles structurait autour d’elle les espaces urbains. Cette prédominance a été contestée dans les années 1970, avec la critique de la société de consommation et la mise au jour des problèmes de sécurité et de pollution engendrés par la circulation. Plus tard, l’explosion de la demande, puis de la production, dans les pays émergents va poser de façon plus aiguë les questions de la limitation des ressources fossiles et des conséquences climatiques du tout-voiture. La crise de 2008 a accentué la prise de conscience de la nécessité de réviser au niveau mondial les procédés de fabrication et les usages de l’automobile. Confrontée à de nouveaux défis, l’industrie (notamment française – Renault et PSA) a commencé à explorer des pistes : production dans les pays émergents de véhicules très bon marché également vendables dans les pays développés, délocalisation des activités de conception, perspectives prometteuses de la voiture électrique dès lors que s’ouvrent de vastes marchés... L’industrie automobile semble être au seuil d’une révolution.

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Plenary session I. Between greening and BRICs: trade offs and synergies

Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan

Michel Freyssenet, CNRS

François Gayral, Direction Marketing  & Communication Monde, Renault
Pascal Feillard, Direction Stratégie Produits Marchés, PSA

Plenary session II. Reconfiguration of the value chains: old and new actors in the automobile system

 



Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan 

Jean-Paul Bailly, President of CECRA
Philippe Payen, Director of Strategy, Research and Sustainable Development

Olivier Melis, General Director of Mobivia

 

Organised with the support of the Ministry of Research

 

Feillard, Pascal (2011).  Automotive mobility in the world. What alternatives ?. Pascal Feillard Head of Marketing Intelligence & Foresight Secretary General of IVM Mobility :  Ability of individuals to set up a physical link between their activities (i.e. social/economic/cultural) and their housing and to manage the changes of state and location Some data 70-75% of European Mobility is done with automobile 60% of European Mobility is urban or peri-urban In 2009, 50% of the world population lives in urban areas, 80% in the developed countries In 2020, 60% of the world population will live in urban areas, 80% in the developing countries Of the 20 largest urban areas, only 3 will be in developed countries (Tokyo, New York et Los Angeles) What automobile for what cities in 2015/2020 ?

La parution des chiffres de l’Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles (OICA) sur la production 2010 dans le monde a été relativement peu commentée. Elle fait pourtant apparaître de manière criante le caractère irréversible de l’irruption d’un nouvel ordre automobile mondial. En effet, outre le fait que la Chine assure désormais presque un quart de la production (18,2 millions des 77,6 millions de VP et de VUL fabriqués dans le monde), l’importance prise par les nouveaux pays de l’automobile durant la crise ressort avec éclat. Si l’on compare ainsi 2010 à 2007 où la production mondiale avait été de 73,3 millions, il ressort que les seuls BRIC représentaient en 2007 moins de 16 millions de véhicules produits (21,4% de la production mondiale) alors qu’en 2010 ils en auront assemblés 27 millions (c’est à dire 34,6%). De même, dans la hiérarchie mondiale des pays constructeurs, la France était encore au 6ème rang en 2007. En ayant vu sa production passer de 3 à 2,2 millions alors que la production croissait rapidement ailleurs, Brésil, Inde, Mexique et Espagne sont désormais devant elle et la France pointe au 10ème rang. Au sein de l’Europe, le redéploiement des productions est également très frappant puisque, avec une production de 857 000 véhicules, l’Italie est par exemple devenue un producteur de moindre importance que la République Tchèque ou la Pologne. lire la suite

Dias, Ana Valéria Carneiro, Raoni Barros Bagno, Otávio Silva Camargo, Maria Cecília Pereira, & Gustavo Britto (2011).  Recent evolutions in R&D activities in the Brazilian automotive industry. Gerpisa colloquium. During the 1990s, the Brazilian automotive industry had undergone some profound changes in its structure, with economic liberalization, the New Automotive Regime, new assemblers and autoparts plants and its insertion in the global strategies of multinational companies. Research, development and engineering (R,D&E) activities in local firms had also been transformed, and it seemed that Brazil was emerging as a peripheral product development center, in a process that was deeply analyzed by some GERPISA researchers (such as Carneiro Dias and Salerno, 2003; Consoni and Quadros, 2003). Indeed, in 2003 it was launched a new-to-the-world, locally developed technology which had had a great impact in local market: the flex fuel technology. From the institutional side, a new federal law (known as “Lei do Bem”) which consolidates fiscal incentives linked to the promotion of R,D&E activities by local firms was promulgated in 2005. Since then, what has happened to R,D&E activities in the Brazilian auto industry? Did the flex fuel case help to promote Brazilian subsidiaries as a competence center to their headquarters? How did the industry react to the Lei do Bem? What is the current status of Brazilian subsidiaries, in which relates to R,D&E activities? Is there any kind of competition with other peripheral centers that might have emerged, such as China, India or South Africa? In this paper, it will be presented an analysis of the current profile of R,D&E activities in the Brazilian automotive industry, based on three different sources: data from the Brazilian National Innovation Survey (PINTEC) from 2003, 2005 and 2008; a survey, carried out in 2010, with 69 Brazilian autoparts subsidiaries; and 8 case studies conducted in one assembler and seven of its first and second tier suppliers. Among other findings, the results showed that, in the Brazilian automotive industry, both the spending in innovative activities as a whole, and in internal R&D in particular, have increased in the period. Interestingly, autoparts companies were the main responsible for this increase, when compared to the motorvehicles firms. Both vehicle assemblers and autoparts have been reinforcing their local engineering in the period, hiring engineers and technical workforce, inaugurating laboratories, formalizing product development processes and increasing workers’ qualification. Most of the firms rely on partnership with clients, suppliers and other firms in their group for their innovative activities. On the other hand, partnership with local universities and research institutes are much less common.

Thème: Les constructeurs

Thème: Automobile manufacturers

Amatucci, Marcos, & Eduardo E. Spers (2011).  Institutions, Technological and Commercial Innovations in the Brazilian Ethanol Industry. Gerpisa colloquium. Institutions, Technological and Commercial Innovations in the Brazilian Ethanol Industry In Brazil one of the most promising sources of renewable energy is ethanol and, more recently, biodiesel. Biofuels could bring not only significant environmental, social and economic advantages, but also contributes to innovation process such as flex fuel engines for cars and motorcycles. This paper investigates the Brazilian sugar cane governance structure and how the institutional environment influences the innovation process in the automotive sector. Institutional demand for sustainable power has pushed the development of more efficient systems and technologies and also a diversification of supply sources, especially of clean and renewable energies. Several countries are seeking to reduce the use of these fuels, either by replacement of the product or by adding other fuels to decrease the polluting. This paper focuses on the Brazilian experience in structure this sustainable strategy and how the innovation was spread to the automotive industry and ethanol chain stimulated by the institutional governance structure. Methodology was based on in-depth interviews with specialists and managers of the sector and in secondary data collected from other researches, associations and public and private organizations. Results show how the innovation process was structured, which agents coordinate the knowledge development and flow, and how information and skills spread throughout the automotive sector. In the one hand, in ethanol production the governance structure was based in a strong relationship between agriculture and industry that solves the problem of coordination and gives the supports for a rapid grow in the scale production. The sugar cane industry uses this economy of scale to invest in agricultural and industry innovations. Some research associations are owned by ethanol organisations; nevertheless government itself still invests in promoting innovation, mainly in the agricultural sector. UNICA, the largest Brazilian (private) association of ethanol organisations, contributes significantly to the governance structure of the industry innovation, supporting also the communication and promotion of the product in other countries. In the other hand, innovation in the automotive sector emerges as a result of a combination of technological innovation in the suppliers sphere with institutional change in the economical and political environment, which pushed the market as a hole to adopt the “flex” technology. With a device installed in the car Brazilian consumers could choose which fuel combination (petrol and ethanol) is more attractive regarding their values perceptions (Amatucci; Spers, 2010). The analysis of the flex fuel engine technology adoption by the Brazilian automakers brings to light a clear process that has a parallel with the California experience. In the technological development phase, suppliers had worked alone without support neither from the industry or the government. In Brazil, the Brazilian sections of Bosch (since 1988) and Magneti Marelli (since the middle 1990s) worked in prototypes of the flex fuel, granting lower costs to the expensive sensor formerly necessary to balance the fuel mixture. With this kind of governance structure the lack of support was so dramatic that the suppliers had to buy their cars in the market in order to develop and test the prototypes. The innovations were presented to the major Brazilian sections of the global automakers, but it wouldn’t evolve to a market solution yet. Apparently the automakers and the consumer market were still resentful of the past experience with pure alcohol engines, which sales relied on governmental tax incentives, but suffered from ethanol supply shortages, caused by the incipient development of the ethanol industry. It was not until in an IPT (Technological Research Institute) from University of Sao Paulo event, where Bosh and Magneti Marelli had the opportunity to expose their technology to the industry and to govern representatives that the situation was changed. With the entrance of IPT in the game the new governance structure of innovation got the govern attention, and the incentives of the pure ethanol engine were granted to the (future) flex fuel engines. Only then the automakers fully adopted the innovation. The process early in California had followed the same path. In the beginning of the 1980s, the American section of Robert Bosch developed a somewhat expensive but effective version of the flex fuel engine which didn’t take off until CARB (California Air Resources Board) manage to getting approval from the USA senate of the Alternative Fuels Act, and then American auto industry adopted the innovation, leading to an expressive number of flex engines sold in the American market even without enough ethanol available for all the cars. These similarities suggest a model of evolution from the technological innovation to market adoption with institutional changes acting as the governance structure of the process. Figure 1 below shows such model: Basic and Independent Technological Developments (prototypes) -> -> Consumers, Public and Private awareness and path dependence of the social benefits of the innovation -> Institutional Changes: Efficiente Governance Structure of Innovations in the ethanol and automotive sectors-> Economies of Scale and Market adoption of the innovation Figure 1 – Institutional changes and governance structure mediating the market adoption of a technological innovation. In conclusion the institutional changes in the case of ethanol fuel in Brazil provides a stable governance structure to mediate the development of all phases of the production chain from sugarcane to the automobile; and economic agents such as UNICA and Brazilian government are striving for international institutional changes in order to extend the production chain to a global one.

Thème: Transformations technologiques, transformations systémiques

Thème: Technological transformations, systemic transformations

Shioji, Hiromi (2011).  Which Segment is the biggest Sales Zone in Chinese Automobile Market?. Gerpisa colloquium.

We try to examine these three issues.

１．We analyze where are the sales volume segments in developing countries, and in particular in China.

２．We confirm the fact that Japanese makers put importance to middle and high price range in developing countries.

３．We consider why and how Japanese makers can put importance to middle and high price range. Moreover, from long terms viewpoints, how long will they keep its strategy.

Our conclusions are follows.

１．Sales volume zone is different from one country to another. Segment structure has been changing even in same country. Focal segments are different by countries.

２．At present volume zone in emerging markets are B and C segments. Price ranges are ＄6,000～30,000. Moreover the biggest volume zone is lower half of B seg. Price range are ＄6,000～12,000.

３．Shares of A segment have been decreasing in Russia, China, and India. Non automobile categories have been reducing excepting India.

４．As results of above 1. 2. 3.，Japanese makers can continue to take a middle and high price (mainly B, C,  D, and E segments) strategy for long period.

５．Demand for C･D･E segments (especially ＄10,000～40,000) have not been yet saturated. Commoditization of automobile has not come. Comparing with other industries, “Introduction” and “Growing” phases of product-life cycle in the emerging countries need long time, makers of developed countries might take a middle and high price vehicles strategy in emerging markets for long period.

６．On the other hand, low price ranges in A･B segments are “Red Ocean” with bloody battle including Chinese makers. We can not find “Blue Ocean” with no competitors. Because Chinese makers can easily enter the markets of ULCV･LCV such as Nano.

７．It is wrong that Japanese maker enter these ULCV･LCV price range markets right now in emerging countries. The reasons of that are followings. Firstly they can not maintain safety standards and environmental standards at such a low cost. Secondly it cause brand deterioration. Thirdly they can not get profit from “Red Ocean.” Lastly they can take a middle and high price vehicles strategy in emerging markets for long period, because the Introduction and Growing phases of product-life cycle will continue for more years in emerging countries.

Thème: Automobile manufacturers

Thème: Les constructeurs

Bernard Jullien, économiste et directeur général du Gerpisa, répond aux questions de Marie-Sophie Carpentier à l'occasion de l'introduction en Bourse de General Motors.

Jullien, Bernard (2010).  La seconde révolution automobile et ses contours. Sociétal. 70(4ème trimestre), 54-61.

Les travaux du GERPISA sur le développement durable de l’industrie automobile conduisent à former un diagnostic au terme duquel les ferments d’une seconde révolution automobile sont réunis. 

Dans un  contexte d’atonie persistante de la demande européenne, les constructeurs PSA et VW annoncent des résultats commerciaux insolemment brillants. Ils semblent d’ores et déjà bénéficier en cela de leur présence dans les émergents et, en particulier en Chine. Même Renault, pourtant absent de Chine, a indiqué cette semaine que son premier semestre 2010 serait fort satisfaisant. lire la suite

Domanski, Boleslaw (2010).  The Prospects and Limits to the Development of the Automotive Periphery. (Domanski B., Ed.).Actes du Gerpisa. 42,

The papers published in this issue of Actes du GERPISA focus on the evolution of the automotive industry in the peripheral countries and their changing role in the international division of labour in the automotive industry. The first aim is to achieve a better understanding of factors and mechanisms that spur and/or hinder industrial upgrading in less developed countries as defined according to Gereffi (2005) as a ‘move from low-value to relatively high-value activities in global production networks’. This is related to the issue of the long-term prospects of the peripheral countries, i.e. the debate as to what extent their position can be sustained in the long run and how far the observed processes of functional upgrading in the international value chain can continue. These problems have gained special importance in the situation of the current crisis. One of the conclusions drawn by Humphrey, Lecler and Salerno (2000) was that a scenario of regional segmentation of the global vehicle industry was more likely than global homogeneity.
The trend towards regionalism has been supported by Freyssenet, Shimizu and Volpato (2003) and Carrillo, Lung and Van Tulder (2004). The papers in this issue discuss the development trajectories of countries that represent three different types of automotive periphery (see Humphrey, Lecler, Salerno, 2000): Mexico as an example of the Integrated Peripheral Market strongly integrated into the North American Free Trade Area (Sturgeon, Gereffi, Rogers, and Stark-Fernandez, this issue; Contreras, Carrillo, and Estrada, this issue), Mercosur as the case of the Emerging Regional Market not integrated into the Triad (Lung, this issue), and China as the best example of the Protected Autonomous Market and now the second largest automobile market behind the United States (Bungsche, this issue).