Chine

Frigant, Vincent (2011).  The three major uncertainties facing the European automotive industry. European Review of Industrial Economics and Policy. The European automotive industry has once again entered a period of uproar. The crisis of 2008/2009 is far from over but probably marks the start of a new era that some observers are starting to refer to as the second automobile revolution. In this article -and more broadly throughout this special issue of the ERIEP, for which is serves as an introduction- we will be trying to emphasize three major uncertainties that weigh upon the European automotive industry. The first relates to the future products that the sector is looking to manufacture and sell. This will involve questions about electric vehicles but also how internal combustion vehicles might be sold to more tone-deaf European consumers. The second section will revisit the outsourcing strategies that have arisen over the past 30 years, together with their increasingly obvious limitations. The final section will highlight the profound geographic recomposition that has taken place under our eyes over the past decade or so, and which speaks directly to the issue of Old Europe’s productive capacities in the future.

Alors que paraissent les chiffres des immatriculations françaises en décembre et que s’annonce une année 2012 durant laquelle la stagnation des ventes en Europe ressort presque comme un scénario optimiste, l’étoile chinoise ternit quelque peu. En effet, en pleine trêve des confiseurs, la Commission du Développement et de la Réforme Nationale a annoncé que dorénavant il ne s’agissait plus de favoriser l’investissement direct étranger dans l’automobile chinoise mais de le freiner. En conséquence, le Ministère du Commerce change les dispositions applicables et, comme l’explique à l’AFP John Zeng, directeur des prévisions au cabinet de recherches LMC Automotive : "Ces dernières années, une joint venture (coentreprise) en Chine bénéficiait de droits de douane réduits sur les importations d'équipements neufs, mais avec cette nouvelle mesure ce genre d'avantages va disparaître et les coûts d'investissement vont augmenter. L'accès de nouveaux arrivants étrangers pourrait être restreint". lire la suite

La publication des résultats de GM au troisième trimestre 2011 a, de manière très significative, donné lieu à des commentaires et des titres très contrastés. En effet, d’un côté, GM redevient clairement le numéro 1 mondial avec 6,79 millions de véhicules sur les 9 premiers mois et Toyota qui avait pris la tête en 2008 rend aujourd’hui à GM plus d’un million de véhicule alors que VW est à 6,11. D’un autre côté, par rapport à 2010, les profits de GM sont en retrait de 12%.

Comme le souligne le Wall Street Journal, il est frappant de constater que GM est en 2011 dans une position symétrique de celle que l’on s’était habitué à constater du temps de "l’ancien GM" : les profits se font aux Etats-Unis et, accessoirement, en Chine; les opérations internationales sont plus problématiques et ce n’est plus seulement l’Europe qui tire les résultats vers le bas, l’Amérique du Sud, la Russie et l’Inde sont également problématiques. Les problèmes de change sont à l’origine d’une partie des problèmes mais c’est aussi l’orientation de beaucoup de ces marchés vers des véhicules modernes et moins chers qui causent les pertes de GM. lire la suite

Il y a quelques mois le Financial Times publiait en pleine page un reportage sur les mœurs automobiles chinoises qui défendait la thèse selon laquelle les préférences chinoises exercent une influence croissante sur les politiques produits des grands constructeurs mondiaux. Les exemples choisis concernaient essentiellement les marques Premium allemandes pour lesquelles les volumes désormais vendus en Chine et les profits qu’ils représentent pour Daimler ou BMW sont tels que cet "effet Chine" est particulièrement prégnant. Les Classe S de Mercedes en particulier sont vendues majoritairement en Chine et y échouer avec ce produit changerait dès lors radicalement la capacité de Daimler de rester dans la course qui l’oppose à ses challengers sur ces segments. Il en résulte, racontait le Financial Times, une attention au confort et aux prestations disponibles aux places arrières notoirement accrue et ce sont petit à petit ces exigences propres au marché chinois qui très en amont donneront aux produits leurs contours. lire la suite

Les lecteurs d’Autoactu prompts à s’enflammer pour défendre l’existant et railler les errements technocratiques de Bruxelles, de l’Ademe, de Renault et d’une énarchie qui produit des plans sécurité routière ou véhicules décarbonés qu’ils jugent irresponsables auront passé une bonne semaine : après que X. Champagne ait exposé un des arguments du rapport "La voiture de demain" du Conseil d’Analyse Stratégique (CAS) signé du très sceptique Syrota jeudi, ils auront appris vendredi que l’unité de production de batterie de Flins ne produira pas ses premières batteries mi-2012 mais 18 mois plus tard. Ils en retireront l’impression que, à mesure que se rapproche l’épreuve de vérité que constituera dans un peu plus d’un an en France le lancement de la Zoé, la vérité se fait jour et remet le véhicule électrique (VE) à la place qui sera la sienne : la marginalité. lire la suite

• Pour accéder aux interventions individuelles cliquer en haut à gauche (chapitres).
• Pour le plein écran cliquer en bas à droite.

Session plénière I. Réduire les émissions et être présents dans les marchés émergents : quelles politiques produits et quels arbitrages 


Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan

Michel Freyssenet, CNRS

François Gayral, Direction Marketing  & Communication Monde, Renault
Pascal Feillard, Direction Stratégie Produits Marchés, PSA

Session plénière II. Restructuration des chaines de valeur : anciens et nouveaux acteurs dans le système automobile 


Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan 

Jean-Paul Bailly, Président du CECRA

Olivier Melis, Président de Mobivia
Philippe Payen, Directeur de la Stratégie, de la Recherche et du Développement Durable de Veolia


 

Réalisé avec l'aide du ministère chargé de la recherche

Freyssenet, Michel (2011).  The Second Automobile Revolution is underway! Three scenarios in confrontation. Gerpisa colloquium. Since 2008, many changes confirm the second automobile revolution is underway. Three of its four conditions are fulfilled. Three scenarios of transition to cleaner cars are in confrontation: scenario of diversity, scenario of progressiveness, scenario of rupture. The last, that appears the rikiest, could impose, because the second is changing in its exact opposite: the scenario of "all at once". The first is not supported by coalized actors.

Thème: Les industries automobiles

Thème: Automobile industries

Stevens, Merieke, Takahiro Fujimoto, & Takahiro Tomino (2011).  Nissan: Sustaining Revival. Gerpisa colloquium. In this presentation we will cover the period of 2008-2011 at Nissan. The three main topics we discuss are the focus on electric vehicles Nissan has taken, the importance of the Chinese market, and the alliance with Renault. Nissan has heavily bet on electric vehicles (EVs) as its answer to the increasing demand for more environmentally friendly automobiles. In our chapter we question the likelihood of the widespread diffusion of EVs in the near future, mainly for cost reasons. We look into niche applications of EVs, which we expect to be more likely in the European market rather than the Japanese or United States markets. China is the largest single market for Nissan, representing nearly a quarter of its total global sales. Nissan markets its vehicles to rising middle classes such as China’s as “an important symbol of freedom, status and personal achievement.” We investigate Nissan’s success in this regard, and discuss future developments that are important for Nissan’s strategy in this respect. The Alliance between Renault and Nissan has continually be hauled as one of the exceptional successes of this scale. Renault and Nissan proved that cross cultural alliances can work. We identify several key aspects of this success. The main point we raise in this respect is that Renault and Nissan did not chase scale, but sought complementarities in markets, capabilities and product architectures.

Thème: Automobile manufacturers

Thème: Les constructeurs

Kuchiki, Akifumi (2011).  Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy from the point of Sequence Economics. Gerpisa colloquium. Background: At the beginning of the 2000s, the west side of the Delta in southern China began to develop as Honda, Nissan and Toyota responded to the industrial cluster policy of Guangzhou municipality, creating an automobile industry cluster based around plants constructed by the three Japanese firms in Guangzhou. In 2001, the Shanghai municipality established Shanghai International Automobile City in 2001 as a base for auto production. Within the Tianjin Bohai New Area, the Tianjin Economic Development Area is crucial to attracting foreign investors to Tianjin. Toyota began to manufacture Vios-type automobiles in Tianjin in 2002, and its related firms began to agglomerate there. Purpose: This paper attempts to establish ‘sequence economics’ in which time plays a crucial role. Our flowchart approach to industrial cluster policy proposes a practical method of the sequence economics to explain the automobile industry clustering in China. Based on the experiences of industrial cluster policies in China and other Asian regions, the flowchart approach is established to generate externality such as the backward linkage in the manufacturing industry in a region. The sequence of policy measures will change the investment environment for the clustering of firms in the labor-intensive manufacturing industry by implementing the sequence of policy measures. The model can be applied to other regions such as regions in Africa. Review: Holt (2004) designed a method called branding genealogy by studying several thousands of advertisement on several major brands such as Coca-Cola and IBM. The model of Holt (2004) was derived by both inductive and deductive methods. Our flowchart approach is extracted by successful cluster policies by inductively studying the cases of cluster policy. But we cannot prove our hypothesis of the flowchart approach by inductive or deductive methods. We propose sufficient conditions for the success of industrial cluster policy. We can form an industrial cluster if we follow our flowchart approach that satisfies the condition. Porter (1998) constructed a diamond model finding four attributes. However, every region is not easy to satisfy the four attributes at the same time. Kuchiki (2005) proposed the flowchart approach of the industrial cluster policy by sequencing the policy measures of factors in a line for the practical policy. The aim of the flowchart approach is to prioritize the policy measures in order, not on a diamond plane but on a line. Fujita, Krugman and Venable (1999) established the models in spatial economics to discuss agglomeration. Our sequence economics analyses the dynamic processes of spatial economics and proposes a policy of the sequence of policy measures in practice for attaining the agglomeration of a region. The sequence of policy measures can change the attributes given to a region that determine the models in spatial economics. As a result, the region becomes competitive with other regions in inviting foreign investors in the labor intensive manufacturing industry to the region at the stage of agglomeration. Flowchart approach: The flowchart approach to the sequence of policy measures consists of the following three steps. First, we will find ingredients or factors. In the case that the factors in the manufacturing industry are A, B, C, D, and E, the permutation of 5 is 120. Second, we will select the minimum number of factors from the factors above in order to succeed in industrial cluster policy. Suppose that A is an anchor firm, C capacity building, and E an industrial zone. Then the number of permutation is 6 even though the number becomes smaller. We can implement only one industrial cluster policy. Third, we will sequence the factors along a flowchart based on the successful cases of industrial cluster policy in the automobile industry policy. Industrial clustering of our flowchart approach consists of two stages. The first stage is the process of agglomeration of firms in the same industry or different industries. The second stage is the process of innovation by the firms. Hypothesis: The sequence satisfying a sufficient condition at the first stage of agglomeration in China is an industrial zone, capacity building, and an anchor firm. We found the above sufficient condition for the success of the automobile industry cluster policy at the first stage of the agglomeration (Its proof is at Appendix 1). The elements(1) of building capacity for the stage of agglomeration include the construction of physical infrastructure, institutional building, human resource development, and the facilitation of living conditions amenable to foreign investors. Reference: Fujita, M., P. Krugman and A. Venables (1999), The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions and International Trade, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Holt, D.B. (2004) How Brands Become Icons: The Principles of Cultural Branding, Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Papers: Kuchiki, A. and T. Gokan (2011, forthcoming), “On the Sequence of Policy Measures in Industrial Cluster Policy for Creating Spatial Advantages, ” Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji (eds.) Industrial Clusters, Upgrading and Innovation in East Asia, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Kuchiki, A. (2011, forthcoming), “Promoting Regional Integration through Industrial Cluster Policy in CLMV, ” Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji (eds.) Industrial Clusters, Upgrading and Innovation in East Asia, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Kuchiki, A. (2010) “The Automobile Industry Cluster in Malaysia,” in From Agglomeration to Innovation, A. Kuchiki and M. Tsuji eds., New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.15-49. Kuchiki, A. (2008a) “The Flowchart Approach of Cluster Policy,” International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management, Vol. 8, Nos. 1/2, pp.63-95. Kuchiki, A. (2008b) “Theory of a Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy,” in The Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy, A. Kuchiki and M. Tsuji eds., New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 285-311. Kuchiki, A. and H. Tsukada (2008c) “Guangzhou’s Automobile Industry Cluster,” in The Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy, A. Kuchiki and M. Tsuji eds., New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 41-70. Kuchiki, A. (2007) “Agglomeration of Exporting Firms in Industrial Zones in Northern Vietnam: Players and Institutions,” Industrial Agglomeration and New Technologies: A Global Perspective, M. Tsuji, E. Giovannetti, and M. Kagami eds., Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp.97-138. Kuchiki, A. (2005) “Flowchart Approach,” in Industrial Clusters in Asia, A. Kuchiki and M. Tsuji eds., New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.169-199. Books: Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji eds. (2011, forthcoming) Industrial Clusters, Upgrading and Innovation in East Asia, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji eds. (2010) From Agglomeration to Innovation, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji eds. (2008) The Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji eds. (2005) Industrial Clusters in Asia, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Note 1: (Capacity building) Physical infrastructure refers to ports, roads, communications, and so on. Institutional building, crucial to success in inviting foreign investors, includes the streamlining of investment procedures through one-stop services, the deregulation of laws, and the introduction of preferential tax system. Human resources include unskilled labor, skilled labor, managers, researchers, and professionals. Living environment, for example, includes the provision of hospitals and international schools in order to invite foreign firms. An anchor firm is expected to have a high value of the industrial backward linkage to use many parts and components. Appendix 1: The decentralization of the central government makes harder the competition of a local region with other regions in inviting investors. The optimal sequence of policy measures is a factor for the success of a region in industrial cluster policy. The sequence of policy measures is crucial to its success in inviting investors. In the case of the automobile industry clusters at Guangzhou and Tianjin, China, the order of the industrial cluster policy is E – C – A. That is, once that an industrial zone is established, capacity is built, and an anchor firm moves in the industrial zone, then its related firms of suppliers follow the anchor firm, resulting in the industrial agglomeration of firms at the zone. Among possible permutations, the flowchart approach to industrial cluster policy chooses the permutation that consists of the minimum number of factors to succeed in the policy. The sequence of policy measures:　Suppose that a firm in an advanced country will invest in a region in an emerging country. There are two candidate regions of A and B. At an initial stage, the investment environment of A is better than that of B at an initial stage to be invested in. But the region B adopts its industrial cluster policy to change its investment environment by implementing the sequence of policy measures. The policy measures change the spatial condition of B. A simple model of Sequence Economics: The sequence of policy measures of industrial cluster policy changes the investment environment of region B for the firm to choose its location of a plant. 1. The flowchart approach: The sequence of policy measures to form a production function {s1 à s2 à s3} 2. Production functions at region A and region B, respectively: Y A and Y 1B. Production function becomes increasing returns to scale in region B (Y iB ) by implementing the sequence of policy measures: i= 1, 2, and 3. The production function after implementing the sequence of policy measures of ｛s1｝becomes : Y 1B = f (｛s1｝), The production function after implementing the sequence of policy measures of ｛s1, s2｝: Y 2 B = f (｛s1, s2｝), The production function after implementing the sequence of policy measures of ｛s1, s2, s3｝: Y 3 B = f (｛s1, s2, s3｝) Production function in region A: Y A. 3. Preference conditions for choosing a location by a firm in an advanced country: L (Y 1 B) < L (Y A) L (Y 2 B) < L (Y A) Region A is preferred to region B due to the increasing returns to scale at region B. 4. The decision on choosing the location of a plant of the firm has been changed after implementing the sequence of policy measures. L (Y 3 B) > L (Y A). Region B is preferred to region A. It is noted that the inequality remains unchanged when the sequence of ｛s1, s2, s3｝is different from the order of ｛s1, s2, s3｝, say｛s1, s3, s2｝. That is, Y 3 C = f (｛s1, s3, s2｝) L (Y 3 C) ＜ L (Y A). Proof of Hypothesis 2: The prototype of export processing zones was seen in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, which became a model for free trade zones in Malaysia (Kuchiki(2010)), eastern seaboard in Thailand (Kuchiki(2011)), northern Vietnam (Kuchiki(2007)), Guangzhou (Kuchiki and Tsukada(2008a)) and Tianjin (Kuchiki(2005)) in China . The model is suitable for other East Asian countries, provided that they satisfy the preconditions of political and macroeconomic stability and public security.

Thème: Les industries automobiles

Thème: Automobile industries

Balcet, Giovanni, Xavier Richet, & Hua Wang (2011).  Geely: a trajectory of catching up and multinational growth. Gerpisa colloquium. In the last two decades, the car industry in China has been fast growing, and booming in the last years. It is diversified both in terms of competitors, (domestic and foreigner), of brands, range of products, innovation, and in terms of control and ownership, spatial localization. Foreign manufacturers have played a central role in bringing in technology, management know-how, marketing and selling networks, supplying chains. Domestic companies, (State-owned) in the first stage have served as platforms allowing foreign companies, through joint-venturing, to set up their business and to operate on the Chinese market, taking rapidly the lion’s share concerning sales on the domestic market. The competitive environment, relatively low entry barriers, State and local pro-market industrial policies have allowed domestic companies, both SOE and private to enter the market to increase market shares, first the low end, slowly moving upward to more sophisticated products (electrical vehicles, hybrid cars). Technology and know-how transfers through spill over have accelerated the pace of catching up and the development of new companies. The change of strategy by SOE enterprises from platform strategy to development of own designed brands, government policies to support the car industry sector have modified the conditions of competition on the domestic market. An higher domestic competitive pressure, the relaxation of government rules for exporting capital and the world financial crisis have facilitated foreign acquisitions, either to expand abroad or to acquire new technologies in China, in order to continue to catch up and to scale up on more complex segments. Geely (or Zhejiang Geely Holding Group) is an interesting case which highlights the strategy of non-State new comers car maker on the domestic market both in terms of entry, growth, diversification, up-grading, acquisition of technology and positioning. Our presentation will concentrate on the following topics : - reverse engineering and strategies of technological catching up - business model - before the Volvo deal: a consistent strategy of asset-seeking acquisitions: London Taxi and Australian transmission producer - bargaining the Volvo deal - financing the Volvo deal: the role of central and local governments - a two-ways internationalization process: Geely acquiring Volvo; Volvo investing in China: in manufacturing, R&D, education and training.

Thème: Les constructeurs

Thème: Automobile manufacturers

Alvarez, Lourdes, & Francisco García (2011).  China and México: competition for the United State automobile Market. Gerpisa colloquium. China and México: competition for the United States automobile Market Lourdes Alvarez Medina Francisco Javier García Pando The emergence of the People´s Republic of China (China) in the global automobile industry has given way to a great deal of speculation on what strategies Chinese car makers will pursue in entering the United State of America (USA) market, threatening the established order among the automotive producers in México. Since the automobile industry is considered by the Chinese government as “the typical- capital- and technology industry , to encourage export of cars and components or investment abroad and good for enlarging exports and being significant for the transformation of foreign trade and economic cooperation” (Annual report, 2010). The aim of this paper is to study the trade of automobiles and components from China and Mexico toward the USA market. This country is the main partner of the automobile industry in Mexico; however China has been increasing its exports component in the last years and now it may be seen as a rival contending for the same market. The study is made using the methodology developed by the Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) and its data base Magic (CEPAL, 2010). Trade is studied at a 10 digits disaggregate level, according to the Harmonized Tariff System of the United States in order to understand which cars and components are being imported from each country, the dynamics and how they are contending. The export similarity index of exported autoparts from China and Mexico to the USA is calculated to compare the trade structure of the two countries.

Thème: Les industries automobiles

Thème: Automobile industries

Comme l’an passé lorsqu’ils annonçaient leurs pertes 2009, PSA et Renault ont paru cette semaine être dans des situations assez comparables et converger progressivement sur un bon nombre de dossiers.

Si l’on ne tient pas compte du gain réalisé par Renault sur la vente des actions Volvo, les bénéfices correspondent à des montants proches. Les deux groupes en profitent pour se hâter de terminer de rembourser la dette de 3 milliards d’euros qu’ils avaient contracté auprès de l’Etat français au plus fort de la crise. Ils sont d’accord pour considérer que leurs ventes en Europe pourraient stagner cette année mais que la part du Reste du Monde est appelé à continuer de croître pour atteindre 50% de leurs chiffres d’affaire autour de 2013 pour Renault et en 2015 pour PSA. Mise à part la Chine, que Renault laisse à Nissan, les autres BRIC sont la priorité pour l’un et l’autre … lire la suite