Asie (émergents)

Frigant, Vincent (2011).  The three major uncertainties facing the European automotive industry. European Review of Industrial Economics and Policy. The European automotive industry has once again entered a period of uproar. The crisis of 2008/2009 is far from over but probably marks the start of a new era that some observers are starting to refer to as the second automobile revolution. In this article -and more broadly throughout this special issue of the ERIEP, for which is serves as an introduction- we will be trying to emphasize three major uncertainties that weigh upon the European automotive industry. The first relates to the future products that the sector is looking to manufacture and sell. This will involve questions about electric vehicles but also how internal combustion vehicles might be sold to more tone-deaf European consumers. The second section will revisit the outsourcing strategies that have arisen over the past 30 years, together with their increasingly obvious limitations. The final section will highlight the profound geographic recomposition that has taken place under our eyes over the past decade or so, and which speaks directly to the issue of Old Europe’s productive capacities in the future.

L’Indien Bajaj a présenté au Salon de New Delhi le RE 60, un quadricycle à moteur léger (400kg) mu par un moteur thermique de 220 cm3 et émettant moins de 60g. Bien que le prix n’ait pas été communiqué, il s’agit d’un de ces fameux ULC (pour "Ultra Low Cost"). On devrait donc se situer autour – et probablement en dessous – des 2000 euros. En attendant l’annonce du prix, certains consommateurs indiens semblent nourrir l’espoir que la promesse de Tata de donner accès à l’automobile pour 1 Lakh par jour puisse être tenu par Bajaj alors que la Nano coûte finalement entre 1,6 et 2,3. En choisissant de ne pas présenter son véhicule comme une voiture mais comme un "quadricycle" et de le positionner directement comme une alternative aux deux roues et trois roues dont ils connaissent le marché mieux que quiconque, les équipes de Bajaj espèrent sans doute ne pas rencontrer à la vente les mêmes problèmes que la Nano.

Autant que cette question du marché dont, comme celle pendante de la qualité, on ne pourra juger qu’à terme, nous importe ici la présentation qui en est faite par Bajaj et les réactions que cela suscite. lire la suite

Alors qu’allait commencer le 9ème salon international de l’Automobile à Guanzhou, avait lieu le 20 novembre à Shenzhen en Chine la cérémonie d’inauguration de la coentreprise “Changan PSA Automobiles” (CAPSA) qui va en particulier produire et commercialiser la gamme DS de Citroën en Chine. Quelques jours plus tard la presse d’affaires relatait que, dans une très récente étude sectorielle sur l’automobile, l'agence Moody's évoque explicitement un "risque chinois" en ces termes :
"Si les constructeurs et équipementiers automobiles présents en Chine devraient pouvoir encore bénéficier d'un important potentiel de croissance à long terme, les investisseurs ne doivent pas pour autant ignorer les répercussions qu'aurait éventuellement sur ces derniers une contraction sensible des ventes dans ce pays". lire la suite

Jullien, Bernard, & Yannick Lung (2011).  Industrie automobile. La croisée des chemins. Etudes. L’industrie automobile a profondément structuré nos sociétés au XXe siècle : ses procédés de fabrication, ainsi que ses rapports sociaux, se sont étendus à l’ensemble de l’industrie, cependant que la généralisation de la possession de voitures individuelles structurait autour d’elle les espaces urbains. Cette prédominance a été contestée dans les années 1970, avec la critique de la société de consommation et la mise au jour des problèmes de sécurité et de pollution engendrés par la circulation. Plus tard, l’explosion de la demande, puis de la production, dans les pays émergents va poser de façon plus aiguë les questions de la limitation des ressources fossiles et des conséquences climatiques du tout-voiture. La crise de 2008 a accentué la prise de conscience de la nécessité de réviser au niveau mondial les procédés de fabrication et les usages de l’automobile. Confrontée à de nouveaux défis, l’industrie (notamment française – Renault et PSA) a commencé à explorer des pistes : production dans les pays émergents de véhicules très bon marché également vendables dans les pays développés, délocalisation des activités de conception, perspectives prometteuses de la voiture électrique dès lors que s’ouvrent de vastes marchés... L’industrie automobile semble être au seuil d’une révolution.

L’été a vu se confirmer ce que l’on pressentait depuis des mois : le couple Bajaj-Renault n’en était pas vraiment un et il n’aura pas de descendance. Dans le même temps, la Nano a le bilan de santé d’un très grand prématuré : on espérait chez Tata qu’à deux ans, il pèse 250 000 immatriculations annuelles et l’on avait installé les capacités pour ; il s’en était vendu 10 000 en mars 2011 et ses géniteurs avaient espéré que sa courbe de poids commençait de se rapprocher de celle attendue ; il s’en est vendu 1202 en Inde en août. lire la suite

Basbous, Bernard (2011).  Les économies développées face aux pays émergents: L’Union Européenne mise à l’épreuve de la politique industrielle chinoise. Sciences politiques. Sciences politiques, études européennes, 64.L'industrie automobile occupe une place particulièrement intéressante au sein de l'Union Européenne et en Chine. Elle a constitué un des piliers de la capacité industrielle de nombreux États européens au 20e siècle et se trouvait au cœur des mouvements qui ont amené sa particularité au « modèle social européen ». Face à ce relatif aboutissement de l'industrie européenne, apparait aujourd'hui une Chine qui est à un moment différent du développement industriel. Non contente de produire des biens manufacturés à faible valeur ajoutée, la Chine vise ce qui a fait le cœur de la puissance industrielle occidentale : les produits à haute composante technologique, comme l'automobile aujourd'hui et l'aéronautique demain. En raison de l'importance de l'industrie automobile pour l'Europe, l'Union européenne (UE) trouve des intérêts à défendre ses constructeurs à l'intérieur et à l'extérieur de l'espace communautaire. Le Droit étant au cœur du processus d’intégration européenne et l’UE étant envisagée par de nombreux auteurs comme une « puissance normative », le moyen étudié dans ce travail pour défendre les intérêts européens à l'étranger est la Norme. Autrement dit, l’Union Européenne parvient-elle, en Chine, à défendre les intérêts des constructeurs automobiles originaires de ses États-membres par le recours à la norme ? L'objet de ce travail est de tenter d'apporter des éléments de réponse à cette question.

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Plenary session I. Between greening and BRICs: trade offs and synergies

Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan

Michel Freyssenet, CNRS

François Gayral, Direction Marketing  & Communication Monde, Renault
Pascal Feillard, Direction Stratégie Produits Marchés, PSA

Plenary session II. Reconfiguration of the value chains: old and new actors in the automobile system

 



Bernard Jullien, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan 

Jean-Paul Bailly, President of CECRA
Philippe Payen, Director of Strategy, Research and Sustainable Development

Olivier Melis, General Director of Mobivia

 

Organised with the support of the Ministry of Research

 

Feillard, Pascal (2011).  Automotive mobility in the world. What alternatives ?. Pascal Feillard Head of Marketing Intelligence & Foresight Secretary General of IVM Mobility :  Ability of individuals to set up a physical link between their activities (i.e. social/economic/cultural) and their housing and to manage the changes of state and location Some data 70-75% of European Mobility is done with automobile 60% of European Mobility is urban or peri-urban In 2009, 50% of the world population lives in urban areas, 80% in the developed countries In 2020, 60% of the world population will live in urban areas, 80% in the developing countries Of the 20 largest urban areas, only 3 will be in developed countries (Tokyo, New York et Los Angeles) What automobile for what cities in 2015/2020 ?

Techakanont, Kriengkrai, & Sittisak Leelahanon (2011).  Impact of Economic Crises on the Thai Automobile Industry. Gerpisa colloquium. This paper analyzes impacts of economic crises on the Thai automobile industry at both demand and supply sides. On the demand side, this study will offer descriptive and statistical analysis on demand for automobile at micro and macro levels. At the micro level, based on questionnaire survey, we analyze the determinant of consumers demand for a car. At the macro level, we estimate determinants of automobile demand, using data from1970s to 2009. We found that demand for automobiles drop during economic crises in 1997-1998 and 2008-2009. However, the impact of the crisis in 2008 was not as serious as in 1997. This is because car manufacturers in Thailand had undergone business restructure and increased their activities in Thailand since 2000. Thus, on the supply side, this study discusses evolution of the Thai government policies to shed light on how the industry been transformed to be a global production network of one-ton pickup trucks and, recently, a production hub for eco-friendly vehicles of several assemblers. We found that industrial policies were crucial in making Thailand's specialization in automobile production, of which has slightly shifted from one-ton pickup trucks to more small passenger cars.

Thème: Transformations de la demande

Thème: Transformations in demand

Stevens, Merieke, Takahiro Fujimoto, & Takahiro Tomino (2011).  Nissan: Sustaining Revival. Gerpisa colloquium. In this presentation we will cover the period of 2008-2011 at Nissan. The three main topics we discuss are the focus on electric vehicles Nissan has taken, the importance of the Chinese market, and the alliance with Renault. Nissan has heavily bet on electric vehicles (EVs) as its answer to the increasing demand for more environmentally friendly automobiles. In our chapter we question the likelihood of the widespread diffusion of EVs in the near future, mainly for cost reasons. We look into niche applications of EVs, which we expect to be more likely in the European market rather than the Japanese or United States markets. China is the largest single market for Nissan, representing nearly a quarter of its total global sales. Nissan markets its vehicles to rising middle classes such as China’s as “an important symbol of freedom, status and personal achievement.” We investigate Nissan’s success in this regard, and discuss future developments that are important for Nissan’s strategy in this respect. The Alliance between Renault and Nissan has continually be hauled as one of the exceptional successes of this scale. Renault and Nissan proved that cross cultural alliances can work. We identify several key aspects of this success. The main point we raise in this respect is that Renault and Nissan did not chase scale, but sought complementarities in markets, capabilities and product architectures.

Thème: Automobile manufacturers

Thème: Les constructeurs

Kuchiki, Akifumi (2011).  Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy from the point of Sequence Economics. Gerpisa colloquium. Background: At the beginning of the 2000s, the west side of the Delta in southern China began to develop as Honda, Nissan and Toyota responded to the industrial cluster policy of Guangzhou municipality, creating an automobile industry cluster based around plants constructed by the three Japanese firms in Guangzhou. In 2001, the Shanghai municipality established Shanghai International Automobile City in 2001 as a base for auto production. Within the Tianjin Bohai New Area, the Tianjin Economic Development Area is crucial to attracting foreign investors to Tianjin. Toyota began to manufacture Vios-type automobiles in Tianjin in 2002, and its related firms began to agglomerate there. Purpose: This paper attempts to establish ‘sequence economics’ in which time plays a crucial role. Our flowchart approach to industrial cluster policy proposes a practical method of the sequence economics to explain the automobile industry clustering in China. Based on the experiences of industrial cluster policies in China and other Asian regions, the flowchart approach is established to generate externality such as the backward linkage in the manufacturing industry in a region. The sequence of policy measures will change the investment environment for the clustering of firms in the labor-intensive manufacturing industry by implementing the sequence of policy measures. The model can be applied to other regions such as regions in Africa. Review: Holt (2004) designed a method called branding genealogy by studying several thousands of advertisement on several major brands such as Coca-Cola and IBM. The model of Holt (2004) was derived by both inductive and deductive methods. Our flowchart approach is extracted by successful cluster policies by inductively studying the cases of cluster policy. But we cannot prove our hypothesis of the flowchart approach by inductive or deductive methods. We propose sufficient conditions for the success of industrial cluster policy. We can form an industrial cluster if we follow our flowchart approach that satisfies the condition. Porter (1998) constructed a diamond model finding four attributes. However, every region is not easy to satisfy the four attributes at the same time. Kuchiki (2005) proposed the flowchart approach of the industrial cluster policy by sequencing the policy measures of factors in a line for the practical policy. The aim of the flowchart approach is to prioritize the policy measures in order, not on a diamond plane but on a line. Fujita, Krugman and Venable (1999) established the models in spatial economics to discuss agglomeration. Our sequence economics analyses the dynamic processes of spatial economics and proposes a policy of the sequence of policy measures in practice for attaining the agglomeration of a region. The sequence of policy measures can change the attributes given to a region that determine the models in spatial economics. As a result, the region becomes competitive with other regions in inviting foreign investors in the labor intensive manufacturing industry to the region at the stage of agglomeration. Flowchart approach: The flowchart approach to the sequence of policy measures consists of the following three steps. First, we will find ingredients or factors. In the case that the factors in the manufacturing industry are A, B, C, D, and E, the permutation of 5 is 120. Second, we will select the minimum number of factors from the factors above in order to succeed in industrial cluster policy. Suppose that A is an anchor firm, C capacity building, and E an industrial zone. Then the number of permutation is 6 even though the number becomes smaller. We can implement only one industrial cluster policy. Third, we will sequence the factors along a flowchart based on the successful cases of industrial cluster policy in the automobile industry policy. Industrial clustering of our flowchart approach consists of two stages. The first stage is the process of agglomeration of firms in the same industry or different industries. The second stage is the process of innovation by the firms. Hypothesis: The sequence satisfying a sufficient condition at the first stage of agglomeration in China is an industrial zone, capacity building, and an anchor firm. We found the above sufficient condition for the success of the automobile industry cluster policy at the first stage of the agglomeration (Its proof is at Appendix 1). The elements(1) of building capacity for the stage of agglomeration include the construction of physical infrastructure, institutional building, human resource development, and the facilitation of living conditions amenable to foreign investors. Reference: Fujita, M., P. Krugman and A. Venables (1999), The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions and International Trade, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Holt, D.B. (2004) How Brands Become Icons: The Principles of Cultural Branding, Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Papers: Kuchiki, A. and T. Gokan (2011, forthcoming), “On the Sequence of Policy Measures in Industrial Cluster Policy for Creating Spatial Advantages, ” Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji (eds.) Industrial Clusters, Upgrading and Innovation in East Asia, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Kuchiki, A. (2011, forthcoming), “Promoting Regional Integration through Industrial Cluster Policy in CLMV, ” Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji (eds.) Industrial Clusters, Upgrading and Innovation in East Asia, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Kuchiki, A. (2010) “The Automobile Industry Cluster in Malaysia,” in From Agglomeration to Innovation, A. Kuchiki and M. Tsuji eds., New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.15-49. Kuchiki, A. (2008a) “The Flowchart Approach of Cluster Policy,” International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management, Vol. 8, Nos. 1/2, pp.63-95. Kuchiki, A. (2008b) “Theory of a Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy,” in The Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy, A. Kuchiki and M. Tsuji eds., New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 285-311. Kuchiki, A. and H. Tsukada (2008c) “Guangzhou’s Automobile Industry Cluster,” in The Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy, A. Kuchiki and M. Tsuji eds., New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 41-70. Kuchiki, A. (2007) “Agglomeration of Exporting Firms in Industrial Zones in Northern Vietnam: Players and Institutions,” Industrial Agglomeration and New Technologies: A Global Perspective, M. Tsuji, E. Giovannetti, and M. Kagami eds., Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp.97-138. Kuchiki, A. (2005) “Flowchart Approach,” in Industrial Clusters in Asia, A. Kuchiki and M. Tsuji eds., New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.169-199. Books: Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji eds. (2011, forthcoming) Industrial Clusters, Upgrading and Innovation in East Asia, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji eds. (2010) From Agglomeration to Innovation, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji eds. (2008) The Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Kuchiki A. and M. Tsuji eds. (2005) Industrial Clusters in Asia, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Note 1: (Capacity building) Physical infrastructure refers to ports, roads, communications, and so on. Institutional building, crucial to success in inviting foreign investors, includes the streamlining of investment procedures through one-stop services, the deregulation of laws, and the introduction of preferential tax system. Human resources include unskilled labor, skilled labor, managers, researchers, and professionals. Living environment, for example, includes the provision of hospitals and international schools in order to invite foreign firms. An anchor firm is expected to have a high value of the industrial backward linkage to use many parts and components. Appendix 1: The decentralization of the central government makes harder the competition of a local region with other regions in inviting investors. The optimal sequence of policy measures is a factor for the success of a region in industrial cluster policy. The sequence of policy measures is crucial to its success in inviting investors. In the case of the automobile industry clusters at Guangzhou and Tianjin, China, the order of the industrial cluster policy is E – C – A. That is, once that an industrial zone is established, capacity is built, and an anchor firm moves in the industrial zone, then its related firms of suppliers follow the anchor firm, resulting in the industrial agglomeration of firms at the zone. Among possible permutations, the flowchart approach to industrial cluster policy chooses the permutation that consists of the minimum number of factors to succeed in the policy. The sequence of policy measures:　Suppose that a firm in an advanced country will invest in a region in an emerging country. There are two candidate regions of A and B. At an initial stage, the investment environment of A is better than that of B at an initial stage to be invested in. But the region B adopts its industrial cluster policy to change its investment environment by implementing the sequence of policy measures. The policy measures change the spatial condition of B. A simple model of Sequence Economics: The sequence of policy measures of industrial cluster policy changes the investment environment of region B for the firm to choose its location of a plant. 1. The flowchart approach: The sequence of policy measures to form a production function {s1 à s2 à s3} 2. Production functions at region A and region B, respectively: Y A and Y 1B. Production function becomes increasing returns to scale in region B (Y iB ) by implementing the sequence of policy measures: i= 1, 2, and 3. The production function after implementing the sequence of policy measures of ｛s1｝becomes : Y 1B = f (｛s1｝), The production function after implementing the sequence of policy measures of ｛s1, s2｝: Y 2 B = f (｛s1, s2｝), The production function after implementing the sequence of policy measures of ｛s1, s2, s3｝: Y 3 B = f (｛s1, s2, s3｝) Production function in region A: Y A. 3. Preference conditions for choosing a location by a firm in an advanced country: L (Y 1 B) < L (Y A) L (Y 2 B) < L (Y A) Region A is preferred to region B due to the increasing returns to scale at region B. 4. The decision on choosing the location of a plant of the firm has been changed after implementing the sequence of policy measures. L (Y 3 B) > L (Y A). Region B is preferred to region A. It is noted that the inequality remains unchanged when the sequence of ｛s1, s2, s3｝is different from the order of ｛s1, s2, s3｝, say｛s1, s3, s2｝. That is, Y 3 C = f (｛s1, s3, s2｝) L (Y 3 C) ＜ L (Y A). Proof of Hypothesis 2: The prototype of export processing zones was seen in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, which became a model for free trade zones in Malaysia (Kuchiki(2010)), eastern seaboard in Thailand (Kuchiki(2011)), northern Vietnam (Kuchiki(2007)), Guangzhou (Kuchiki and Tsukada(2008a)) and Tianjin (Kuchiki(2005)) in China . The model is suitable for other East Asian countries, provided that they satisfy the preconditions of political and macroeconomic stability and public security.

Thème: Les industries automobiles

Thème: Automobile industries

Balcet, Giovanni, Xavier Richet, & Hua Wang (2011).  Geely: a trajectory of catching up and multinational growth. Gerpisa colloquium. In the last two decades, the car industry in China has been fast growing, and booming in the last years. It is diversified both in terms of competitors, (domestic and foreigner), of brands, range of products, innovation, and in terms of control and ownership, spatial localization. Foreign manufacturers have played a central role in bringing in technology, management know-how, marketing and selling networks, supplying chains. Domestic companies, (State-owned) in the first stage have served as platforms allowing foreign companies, through joint-venturing, to set up their business and to operate on the Chinese market, taking rapidly the lion’s share concerning sales on the domestic market. The competitive environment, relatively low entry barriers, State and local pro-market industrial policies have allowed domestic companies, both SOE and private to enter the market to increase market shares, first the low end, slowly moving upward to more sophisticated products (electrical vehicles, hybrid cars). Technology and know-how transfers through spill over have accelerated the pace of catching up and the development of new companies. The change of strategy by SOE enterprises from platform strategy to development of own designed brands, government policies to support the car industry sector have modified the conditions of competition on the domestic market. An higher domestic competitive pressure, the relaxation of government rules for exporting capital and the world financial crisis have facilitated foreign acquisitions, either to expand abroad or to acquire new technologies in China, in order to continue to catch up and to scale up on more complex segments. Geely (or Zhejiang Geely Holding Group) is an interesting case which highlights the strategy of non-State new comers car maker on the domestic market both in terms of entry, growth, diversification, up-grading, acquisition of technology and positioning. Our presentation will concentrate on the following topics : - reverse engineering and strategies of technological catching up - business model - before the Volvo deal: a consistent strategy of asset-seeking acquisitions: London Taxi and Australian transmission producer - bargaining the Volvo deal - financing the Volvo deal: the role of central and local governments - a two-ways internationalization process: Geely acquiring Volvo; Volvo investing in China: in manufacturing, R&D, education and training.

Thème: Les constructeurs

Thème: Automobile manufacturers